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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, May 20, 2023

SPC May 20, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging is expected to persist across the central CONUS throughout much of the extended period, with modest mid-level flow anticipated across the CONUS during this time frame as well. The absence of any large-scale synoptic systems will allow for low-level moisture to be maintained along the southern and western periphery of extensive surface ridging, keeping a large reservoir of 60+ dewpoints over the central and southern Plains. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is expected across the southern Rockies during this period, helping to support continued lee troughing as well as diurnal thunderstorm initiation over the higher terrain. These thunderstorms could then move into the more moist and unstable conditions across the central/southern High Plains, contributing to some severe storm potential. Additionally, a moderate low-level jet is anticipated nightly across the southern and central High Plains, supporting severe potential late into the evening. However, given the forecast range, overall convective evolution remains uncertain, with preceding thunderstorm activity greatly impacting the following day's severe potential. This limits predictability, resulting in low forecast confidence. There is some signal in the medium-range guidance that a more substantial southern-stream shortwave trough will move through the Southwest this weekend. However, variability remains high within the guidance, and predictability is low. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)