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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, May 2, 2023

SPC May 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Substantive change to the blocked regime across eastern North America and the western Atlantic likely will not occur until mid to late week. However, models suggest that the high centered over Newfoundland and Labrador may become a bit more prominent today through tonight, with mid/upper heights beginning to build and elongate along an east-west axis. An initially broad and deep cyclone to its southwest may gradually become less prominent, but it still appears likely to encompass most areas to the east of the Great Plains, while its center only slowly redevelops southeast of the lower Great Lakes region. Upstream, the center of another developing broad, deep mid-level low, which is becoming increasingly cut off from the stronger westerlies, continues to dig along the northern California coast. By 12Z this morning, it is forecast to reach areas near/west of San Francisco Bay, where it may linger through the day, before perhaps reforming a bit farther offshore, to the west and southwest, through the latter half of the period. Mid-level ridging between the lows is forecast to generally be maintained through the period along the Rockies. However, it does appear that one or two weak short wave perturbations will progress through the larger-scale anticyclonic flow across the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau into southern Great Plains vicinity. This may be accompanied by moistening of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, as modest boundary-layer moistening also takes place, on a southeasterly near-surface return flow of Gulf of Mexico moisture through the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas South Plains, into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. ...Eastern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite the moistening aloft during the day, and perhaps increasing saturation of profiles from upper into mid-levels, initially rather steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to generally be maintained across the region into mid or late afternoon. With boundary heating, mixing and the modest low-level moisture return (supportive of mid/upper 50s surface dew points by mid afternoon), it appears that this may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, along and east of a developing dryline near or east of the New Mexico/Texas state border. Aided by forcing for ascent accompanying an approaching mid-level perturbation, beneath difluent high-level flow, it appears that scattered to numerous thunderstorms may initiate near and west of the dryline. Some of these may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and wind gusts, with strongest storms initially tending to focus along the dryline, where veering of generally weak wind fields with height may contribute to at least modest deep-layer shear. It is possible that a zone of stronger low-level warm advection, extending from western portions of the Texas Panhandle into the South Plains, may eventually become a focus for a consolidating and organizing cluster of storms, with a developing cold pool accompanied by strong surface gusts for a period this evening. ..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)