LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into
western Texas this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least
some risk for severe hail and wind.
...Synopsis...
Substantive change to the blocked regime across eastern North
America and the western Atlantic likely will not occur until mid to
late week. However, models suggest that the high centered over
Newfoundland and Labrador may become a bit more prominent today
through tonight, with mid/upper heights beginning to build and
elongate along an east-west axis. An initially broad and deep
cyclone to its southwest may gradually become less prominent, but it
still appears likely to encompass most areas to the east of the
Great Plains, while its center only slowly redevelops southeast of
the lower Great Lakes region.
Upstream, the center of another developing broad, deep mid-level
low, which is becoming increasingly cut off from the stronger
westerlies, continues to dig along the northern California coast.
By 12Z this morning, it is forecast to reach areas near/west of San
Francisco Bay, where it may linger through the day, before perhaps
reforming a bit farther offshore, to the west and southwest, through
the latter half of the period.
Mid-level ridging between the lows is forecast to generally be
maintained through the period along the Rockies. However, it does
appear that one or two weak short wave perturbations will progress
through the larger-scale anticyclonic flow across the southern
Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau into southern Great Plains
vicinity. This may be accompanied by moistening of subtropical
eastern Pacific origins, as modest boundary-layer moistening also
takes place, on a southeasterly near-surface return flow of Gulf of
Mexico moisture through the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas South
Plains, into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies.
...Eastern New Mexico into West Texas...
Despite the moistening aloft during the day, and perhaps increasing
saturation of profiles from upper into mid-levels, initially rather
steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to generally
be maintained across the region into mid or late afternoon. With
boundary heating, mixing and the modest low-level moisture return
(supportive of mid/upper 50s surface dew points by mid afternoon),
it appears that this may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of
1000 J/kg, along and east of a developing dryline near or east of
the New Mexico/Texas state border.
Aided by forcing for ascent accompanying an approaching mid-level
perturbation, beneath difluent high-level flow, it appears that
scattered to numerous thunderstorms may initiate near and west of
the dryline. Some of these may pose a risk for marginally severe
hail and wind gusts, with strongest storms initially tending to
focus along the dryline, where veering of generally weak wind fields
with height may contribute to at least modest deep-layer shear.
It is possible that a zone of stronger low-level warm advection,
extending from western portions of the Texas Panhandle into the
South Plains, may eventually become a focus for a consolidating and
organizing cluster of storms, with a developing cold pool
accompanied by strong surface gusts for a period this evening.
..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2023
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