LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good large-scale
agreement on the general upper flow pattern over the U.S. through
Day 6. Beyond this time, though model differences increase, it
nonetheless appears that large-scale/organized severe weather
potential will be low through the end of the period.
In the shorter term, limited severe risk will likely exist from
portions of Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and Georgia
day 4 (Saturday), as a cold front continues to sag southward toward
the Gulf of Mexico. At this time however, both instability and
shear appear likely to remain somewhat limited, which suggests that
stronger storms should remain isolated. Once this front reaches the
northern Gulf Day 5, surface high pressure is forecast to expand
southeastward across the central and eastern U.S., and likely remain
there through the end of the period. As such, overall severe risk
should remain limited through the period.
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