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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, May 17, 2023

SPC May 17, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginally severe winds and hail will be possible in parts of the Southeast this afternoon. Storms with isolated large hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the High Plains late this afternoon into early this evening. ...Southeast... Westerly flow at mid-levels will remain relatively weak today across the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the region with a moist airmass located to the south of the front. Surface heating across this moist airmass will likely contribute the development of an east-to-west axis of moderate instability across the central Gulf Coast states by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front. Although mid-level flow will be relatively weak, forecast soundings suggest that low-level lapse rates will become steep during the early to mid afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in areas where instability is locally maximized near and after peak heating could be associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ...High Plains... An upper-level trough will move through the northern Plains today, as mid-level flow remains from the northwest across much of the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the northern Plains and a lee trough will deepen in the central High Plains. As surface temperatures warm today, a north-to-south instability axis is expected to develop across the High Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorms will form in the vicinity of the instability axis during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Thursday have surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s F with 0-6 km shear generally between 30 and 35 knots. Lapse rates are forecast to become steep, especially at low-levels. This should support a marginal threat for severe wind gusts. Although the potential for supercells should remain isolated, rotating updrafts that develop could contain large hail. The threat will likely persist into the early evening with stronger convective clusters. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 05/17/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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