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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, May 14, 2023

SPC May 14, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the medium-range models suggest that the overall flow pattern over the U.S. featuring a western ridge and an eastern trough will persist through the end of the period. As such, with the higher low-level theta-e airmass largely suppressed southward through the period, severe threat appears likely to remain generally limited. Day 4 (Wednesday), a cold front -- already off the Atlantic Coast -- is progged to sag southward across the Gulf Coast states. While showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the progressing front, generally weak flow aloft will limit potential for organized storms. While this front lingers in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast, an upper low is forecast to shift southeastward out of the Canadian Prairie and into the Upper Great Lakes Day 5, and then to the Lower Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region Day 6. As this low advances, an accompanying surface cold front is progged to shift southeastward across the Midwest and southward across the Plains. With the higher theta-e airmass remaining suppressed to the south by the prior/lingering front, moisture/instability should remain limited ahead of this next front Day 5, with severe threat likely to remain limited. As the front sags farther south into the southern Plains, and across the Ohio Valley Day 6, increasing proximity to greater low-level moisture should result in more substantial instability ahead of the front. This suggests some increase in severe risk, though still likely limited in most areas due to modest flow and persistence of weak short-wave ridging across the southern Plains. Day 7 the front is forecast to continue southward across the Gulf Coast region and into the Gulf, and eastward toward/into the western Atlantic. Likelihood for a continued lack of robust moisture/instability ahead of the front as it reaches the Atlantic Coast states, and shear which should remain somewhat subdued farther south, continues to suggest limited severe risk. With the front likely moving off of both the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states Day 8, little severe risk is evident. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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