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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, May 14, 2023

SPC May 14, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and hail are expected today across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... A large area of high pressure will remain over the Southeast today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place beneath the upper-level ridge, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F. The greatest low-level moisture is forecast in the mid Mississippi Valley, where a pocket of moderate instability should develop by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will form across much of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. RAP forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will likely reach the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with a maximum in instability developing in southeast Missouri. As convection increases in coverage early this afternoon, cell clusters are expected to merge into an organized line segment to the northwest of the instability max. This line is forecast to move southeastward along a gradient of instability from the vicinity of St. Louis southeastward to near Paducah, Kentucky. Forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability gradient suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 25 to 30 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km. This should support an organized line segment with wind damage potential. The severe threat is expected to peak during the late afternoon or early evening. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 05/14/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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