LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and hail are
expected today across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley.
...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
A large area of high pressure will remain over the Southeast today.
At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place beneath the
upper-level ridge, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near
70 F. The greatest low-level moisture is forecast in the mid
Mississippi Valley, where a pocket of moderate instability should
develop by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm, scattered
thunderstorms will form across much of the lower Missouri and mid
Mississippi Valleys. RAP forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will likely
reach the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with a maximum in instability
developing in southeast Missouri. As convection increases in
coverage early this afternoon, cell clusters are expected to merge
into an organized line segment to the northwest of the instability
max. This line is forecast to move southeastward along a gradient of
instability from the vicinity of St. Louis southeastward to near
Paducah, Kentucky. Forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability
gradient suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 25 to 30 knot
range, with 0-3 km lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km. This should
support an organized line segment with wind damage potential. The
severe threat is expected to peak during the late afternoon or early
evening.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 05/14/2023
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