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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, May 11, 2023

SPC May 11, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AREA AND VICINITY...AND FROM OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms are expected to begin during the afternoon, across a broad area extending from the Mid-Missouri Valley southward to the Rio Grande Valley. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts will likely be the primary severe threats over the southern half of the area into the overnight hours, while damaging winds and hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will be possible across the Mid Missouri Valley area through the evening. ...Synopsis... Weak upper troughing will prevail across much of the Intermountain Region and into the Plains states on Friday. Within the broad area of cyclonic flow, a weakening low is forecast to drift slowly northeastward across western Nebraska, while a second cyclonic disturbance is forecast to shift northeastward across northern Mexico, and into western Texas through the second half of the period. Elsewhere, northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the Northeast, with ridging across the Southeast and Midwest and also across the West Coast states. At the surface, a weak low will drift across western Nebraska beneath the upper system, while an arcing, very slow-moving cold front stretches from eastern Nebraska into central Kansas and western Oklahoma, and into the Texas South Plains during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Missouri Valley area and vicinity... A cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of western Nebraska near the weakening upper low. Moderate to strong afternoon destabilization across the Mid Missouri Valley vicinity will allow additional storm development -- in an arcing manner extending eastward/southeastward across Nebraska, and southward across eastern Kansas, with coverage diminishing with southward extent. With flow aloft sufficient for organized storms across this area, the greatest supercell potential is evident at this time from northeastern Nebraska southeastward toward northeastern Kansas during the late afternoon, and then spreading east-northeastward into western Iowa and vicinity during the evening. Along with risk for locally damaging winds and hail with stronger storms, a couple of tornadoes will be possible given backed/southeasterly low-level flow contributing to ample low-level shear. Risk should gradually diminish into the overnight hours. ...Oklahoma to the Rio Grande... Thunderstorm development is expected to occur from the central Oklahoma vicinity southwestward to the Texas South Plains, along a weak surface baroclinic zone, as daytime heating of a moist pre-frontal boundary layer yields 3000 to 4000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE by late afternoon. While only modest shear is forecast to be present, mid-level southwesterlies around 25 kts atop low-level southeasterlies should result in sufficient shear for rotating updrafts -- and attendant risk for very large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. As the weak upper low approaches the Rio Grande during the afternoon, storms will also increase from the Transpecos region into the Edwards Plateau area with time. Along wind the favorably strong CAPE, increasing flow associated with the approaching upper disturbance will support organized/rotating storms -- which appear likely to grow upscale into a large MCS through the evening as a low-level jet increases nocturnally. Very large hail should be the primary threat initially, but damaging wind potential will likely increase into the evening, and into the overnight hours as storms expand/progress east/southeast with time. ..Goss.. 05/11/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)