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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, May 10, 2023

SPC May 10, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and potentially a few tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening, centered over parts of the central High Plains. ...High Plains... An upper trough over the western states will progress eastward today, with meridional/southerly flow at mid/upper levels becoming established over much of the High Plains by late this afternoon and evening. At the surface, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward over much of the Great Plains, and to the east of a dryline forecast to mix eastward over the High Plains through the day. A zone of low-level easterly/upslope flow is expected to persist, centered on northeastern CO into eastern WY and the NE Panhandle vicinity. As large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, initially high-based convection should develop over the higher terrain and spread north-northeastward this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe winds may occur with the initial activity, but large hail should be an increasing concern once thunderstorms intercept greater low-level moisture across the High Plains. A corridor of very large hail potential is evident across parts of northeastern CO into northwestern KS and parts of southwestern NE. Across this area, favorable deep-layer shear should support supercells. Ample low-level shear should also support a threat for a few tornadoes over this same region if convection can remain at least semi-discrete through the early evening. There is still some uncertainty with how many supercells will develop, and how quickly the mode may transition to more linear clusters, with primarily a damaging wind threat. Overall convective coverage should be more limited/isolated with southward extent along the dryline into the southern High Plains. ...Coastal/East Texas into Louisiana... Beneath upper ridging, a weak mid-level cyclone augmented by a convectively generated MCV will move slowly north-northeastward across the ArkLaTex region today. Modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow associated with these features should encourage some updraft organization across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA. Thunderstorms that develop across this region could become locally strong to severe, with a threat for isolated damaging winds. A tornado or two also appears possible, given a favorable/veering low-level wind profile and some hodograph curvature. However, widespread cloudiness should tend to mute daytime heating and the degree of destabilization that can occur. Have therefore maintained a Marginal Risk, with some northward expansion. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... A weak shortwave trough will move eastward atop the northern extent of the upper ridge near the international border through the afternoon/evening. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings indicate steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, aiding in the development of weak to moderate instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a southeastward-advancing front initially over Manitoba and spread southeast into ND and northern MN. Modestly veering wind profiles will result in marginal effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt, allowing for occasionally organized cells, despite rather modest low/mid-level flow. Isolated large hail and damaging winds appear possible with the strongest cores. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/10/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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