LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 08 2023
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Texas Permian Basin into the central Plains Sunday afternoon and
evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Florida
Peninsula as well.
...Synopsis...
A dry continental airmass is expected cover much of the central and
eastern CONUS early Sunday morning, relegating any appreciable
low-level moisture to the FL Peninsula and TX Gulf Coast. Showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated across the FL Peninsula, in the
vicinity of a weak cold front expected to move southward across the
peninsula throughout the day. Limited buoyancy and weak shear should
mitigate any severe potential.
Farther west, a lead shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward
through the Plains during the day, with another shortwave trough
following quickly in its wake during the evening and overnight. As
these troughs move eastward, upper ridging will build across the
Intermountain West.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing from the central
Plains into the southern High Plains early Sunday morning, just
ahead of the lead shortwave and in the vicinity of a weak cold front
extending across the region. This frontal zone will remain weak, and
most low-level moisture will remain confined to south TX and TX Gulf
Coast. Even so, the combination of strong diurnal heating with cold
mid-level temperatures and modest mid-level moisture is still
expected to result in air-mass destabilization. This destabilization
coupled with marginal ascent (from a combination of low-level
convergence and larger-scale ascent attendant to the shortwaves)
should result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, from
the Permian Basin across the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK into
the central Plains. Wind fields will be weak, but low-level flow
veering to more northwesterly/northerly aloft will still result in
modest bulk shear. As a result, a few stronger storms are possible,
but overall severe coverage is currently expected too low to
outlook.
..Mosier.. 04/08/2023
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