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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, April 8, 2023

SPC Apr 8, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Permian Basin into the central Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula as well. ...Synopsis... A dry continental airmass is expected cover much of the central and eastern CONUS early Sunday morning, relegating any appreciable low-level moisture to the FL Peninsula and TX Gulf Coast. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across the FL Peninsula, in the vicinity of a weak cold front expected to move southward across the peninsula throughout the day. Limited buoyancy and weak shear should mitigate any severe potential. Farther west, a lead shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Plains during the day, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake during the evening and overnight. As these troughs move eastward, upper ridging will build across the Intermountain West. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing from the central Plains into the southern High Plains early Sunday morning, just ahead of the lead shortwave and in the vicinity of a weak cold front extending across the region. This frontal zone will remain weak, and most low-level moisture will remain confined to south TX and TX Gulf Coast. Even so, the combination of strong diurnal heating with cold mid-level temperatures and modest mid-level moisture is still expected to result in air-mass destabilization. This destabilization coupled with marginal ascent (from a combination of low-level convergence and larger-scale ascent attendant to the shortwaves) should result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, from the Permian Basin across the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK into the central Plains. Wind fields will be weak, but low-level flow veering to more northwesterly/northerly aloft will still result in modest bulk shear. As a result, a few stronger storms are possible, but overall severe coverage is currently expected too low to outlook. ..Mosier.. 04/08/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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