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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, March 3, 2023

SPC Mar 3, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible on Friday across parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southeast/Mid Mississippi Valley... A negatively-tilted upper-level trough, and an associated 90 to 110 mid-level jet, will move quickly northeastward across the mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, a deepening low will move northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley, reaching the Ohio Valley this afternoon. A cold front will advance quickly eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms will likely form just ahead of the front early in the day, with a squall line organizing and moving quickly eastward across the region. Forecast soundings near the line around midday have impressively strong southerly flow of 50 to 60 knots just above the surface. This line should be able to easily drive these winds to the surface, making wind damage likely in many areas this afternoon. The faster moving and more organized parts of the line could produce gusts exceeding 70 knots, with the greatest wind-damage threat located from near the Ohio River extending southward to northwest of the Atlanta Metro. In addition, the stronger parts of the line should have embedded rotating elements. These cells could be associated with a tornado threat. The tornado threat should remain relatively isolated, but should develop across a fairly broad area from north-central Alabama and far northwest Georgia northward to near the Ohio River. The wind-damage threat is expected to continue eastward into the Southern Appalachians by late afternoon, but the line should weaken substantially after it crosses the Piedmont. ..Broyles/Flournoy.. 03/03/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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