LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes
will be possible on Friday across parts of the Southeast into the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southeast/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A negatively-tilted upper-level trough, and an associated 90 to 110
mid-level jet, will move quickly northeastward across the mid
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, a deepening
low will move northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley,
reaching the Ohio Valley this afternoon. A cold front will advance
quickly eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Thunderstorms will likely form just ahead of the front early in the
day, with a squall line organizing and moving quickly eastward
across the region. Forecast soundings near the line around midday
have impressively strong southerly flow of 50 to 60 knots just above
the surface. This line should be able to easily drive these winds to
the surface, making wind damage likely in many areas this afternoon.
The faster moving and more organized parts of the line could produce
gusts exceeding 70 knots, with the greatest wind-damage threat
located from near the Ohio River extending southward to northwest of
the Atlanta Metro.
In addition, the stronger parts of the line should have embedded
rotating elements. These cells could be associated with a tornado
threat. The tornado threat should remain relatively isolated, but
should develop across a fairly broad area from north-central Alabama
and far northwest Georgia northward to near the Ohio River. The
wind-damage threat is expected to continue eastward into the
Southern Appalachians by late afternoon, but the line should weaken
substantially after it crosses the Piedmont.
..Broyles/Flournoy.. 03/03/2023
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