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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, March 13, 2023

SPC Mar 13, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...FL Peninsula... Deep westerly flow will be maintained across the Southeast, including much of the FL Peninsula Monday as a strong upper trough digs into the OH Valley. Early this morning, an elongated band of convection has consolidated ahead of a pronounced cold front across the northern Peninsula. This activity should be shunted south ahead of the front, into the central portions of the peninsula by 18z, then into southern portions of the state later in the afternoon. While modest buoyancy will develop ahead of the front, poor low-level convergence is a limiting factor for updraft intensity/organization. Even so, forecast soundings exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) and adequate-strong surface-6km shear which may lead to isolated strong/severe thunderstorms. A few supercells could evolve ahead of the front but multi-cell updrafts are also possible. Localized hail/wind threat appear to be the greatest risks. ...Central Valley Region of CA... Isolated convection will likely develop again Monday afternoon across the central Valley region as low-level moisture should hold with surface dew points in the lower 50s. However, mid-level temperatures should also warm a few degrees over Sunday and overall buoyancy is expected to be a bit weaker. While a few storms could exhibit weak rotation, or even produce marginally severe hail, at this time it appears severe probabilities are not warranted. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/13/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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