LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Large hail and damaging winds
should be the main threats.
...FL Peninsula...
Deep westerly flow will be maintained across the Southeast,
including much of the FL Peninsula Monday as a strong upper trough
digs into the OH Valley. Early this morning, an elongated band of
convection has consolidated ahead of a pronounced cold front across
the northern Peninsula. This activity should be shunted south ahead
of the front, into the central portions of the peninsula by 18z,
then into southern portions of the state later in the afternoon.
While modest buoyancy will develop ahead of the front, poor
low-level convergence is a limiting factor for updraft
intensity/organization. Even so, forecast soundings exhibit steep
mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) and adequate-strong surface-6km
shear which may lead to isolated strong/severe thunderstorms. A few
supercells could evolve ahead of the front but multi-cell updrafts
are also possible. Localized hail/wind threat appear to be the
greatest risks.
...Central Valley Region of CA...
Isolated convection will likely develop again Monday afternoon
across the central Valley region as low-level moisture should hold
with surface dew points in the lower 50s. However, mid-level
temperatures should also warm a few degrees over Sunday and overall
buoyancy is expected to be a bit weaker. While a few storms could
exhibit weak rotation, or even produce marginally severe hail, at
this time it appears severe probabilities are not warranted.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/13/2023
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SknsBn
