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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, March 1, 2023

SPC Mar 1, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak appears possible across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions Thursday into Thursday night, with a few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and hail all possible. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to become negatively tilted as it traverses the southern Plains on Thursday. A surface low is expected to steadily deepen somewhere near the Red River during the day, with more rapid deepening expected Thursday night as the cyclone moves northeastward toward the Ozarks. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaMiss region and Southeast... A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak still appears possible from parts of the southern Plains into ArkLaMiss vicinity, mainly Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A Moderate Risk has been introduced where confidence is currently highest in the potential for widespread damaging wind and a few strong tornadoes. Early-day convection appears possible across north Texas into the ArkLaTex region and parts of the ArkLaMiss, which may persist through much of the day and limit the northward progression of the effective warm sector. Meanwhile, moderate instability will develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of north/central TX, which will begin to surge eastward by late afternoon into the evening. Renewed thunderstorm development along the front will be possible as soon as mid afternoon, with coverage increasing markedly by early evening. A QLCS will likely develop and surge eastward toward the ArkLaTex region, and eventually toward the ArkLaMiss overnight. Strong deep-layer shear will be present across the entire region through the period, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase near the ArkLaTex region by early evening, in conjunction with an intensifying low-level jet. Any early-day convection that can become rooted in the boundary layer could evolve into organized cells/clusters, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards. Uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of discrete warm-sector supercell development during the afternoon/evening, though that remains possible. Embedded supercells will also be possible within the QLCS that develops along the surging cold front. A few strong tornadoes (and also large hail) appear possible with any sustained discrete or embedded supercells that move into an increasingly favorable environment near the ArkLaTex region. Widespread damaging winds may also evolve with the anticipated QLCS Thursday night, along a with a threat of line-embedded tornadoes. Storms may tend to weaken late in the period, as they encounter weaker instability and the primary shortwave begins to eject away from the warm sector, but some threat for damaging wind and at least brief tornadoes will likely persist until the end of the period into parts of central/northern MS. ..Dean.. 03/01/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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