LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
TEXAS...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak appears possible across
parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions
Thursday into Thursday night, with a few strong tornadoes,
widespread damaging wind, and hail all possible.
...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to become negatively
tilted as it traverses the southern Plains on Thursday. A surface
low is expected to steadily deepen somewhere near the Red River
during the day, with more rapid deepening expected Thursday night as
the cyclone moves northeastward toward the Ozarks.
...Southern Plains into the ArkLaMiss region and Southeast...
A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak still appears possible from
parts of the southern Plains into ArkLaMiss vicinity, mainly
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A Moderate Risk has been
introduced where confidence is currently highest in the potential
for widespread damaging wind and a few strong tornadoes.
Early-day convection appears possible across north Texas into the
ArkLaTex region and parts of the ArkLaMiss, which may persist
through much of the day and limit the northward progression of the
effective warm sector. Meanwhile, moderate instability will develop
along/ahead of the cold front across parts of north/central TX,
which will begin to surge eastward by late afternoon into the
evening. Renewed thunderstorm development along the front will be
possible as soon as mid afternoon, with coverage increasing markedly
by early evening. A QLCS will likely develop and surge eastward
toward the ArkLaTex region, and eventually toward the ArkLaMiss
overnight.
Strong deep-layer shear will be present across the entire region
through the period, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase
near the ArkLaTex region by early evening, in conjunction with an
intensifying low-level jet. Any early-day convection that can become
rooted in the boundary layer could evolve into organized
cells/clusters, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards.
Uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of discrete
warm-sector supercell development during the afternoon/evening,
though that remains possible. Embedded supercells will also be
possible within the QLCS that develops along the surging cold front.
A few strong tornadoes (and also large hail) appear possible with
any sustained discrete or embedded supercells that move into an
increasingly favorable environment near the ArkLaTex region.
Widespread damaging winds may also evolve with the anticipated QLCS
Thursday night, along a with a threat of line-embedded tornadoes.
Storms may tend to weaken late in the period, as they encounter
weaker instability and the primary shortwave begins to eject away
from the warm sector, but some threat for damaging wind and at least
brief tornadoes will likely persist until the end of the period into
parts of central/northern MS.
..Dean.. 03/01/2023
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