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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, February 4, 2023

SPC Feb 4, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday with a developing surface low moving from the western Caribbean to the southern Florida Peninsula during the period. A stronger mid-upper level trough will move into the western CONUS which could bring some thunderstorms to portions of coastal northern California and the Sierra. ...Southeast Florida... Low-level theta-e will increase amid southerly flow across the southern Florida Peninsula which will lead to increasing buoyancy Sunday afternoon. The primary mass response will be farther east, across the Gulf Stream which is where the majority of storm activity is expected. Some thunderstorm activity may occur along the sea-breeze near the coast and could become organized given 35 to 40 knots of effective shear. However, westerly mid-upper level flow should promote activity quickly moving offshore. In addition, the NAM and ECMWF show quite extensive cloud cover which may weaken the sea breeze circulation and make thunderstorm development less likely. Therefore, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment across southern Florida could support some severe weather, but storm coverage remains questionable. Marginal severe weather probabilities will not be added at this time. In California, cool temperatures aloft may provide ample instability for a few thunderstorms in coastal regions of northern California. In addition, some weak instability may develop within the central Valley and into the Sierra foothills where orographic enhancement may increase thunderstorm potential. ..Bentley.. 02/04/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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