LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday with a developing surface low moving from the western
Caribbean to the southern Florida Peninsula during the period. A
stronger mid-upper level trough will move into the western CONUS
which could bring some thunderstorms to portions of coastal northern
California and the Sierra.
...Southeast Florida...
Low-level theta-e will increase amid southerly flow across the
southern Florida Peninsula which will lead to increasing buoyancy
Sunday afternoon. The primary mass response will be farther east,
across the Gulf Stream which is where the majority of storm activity
is expected. Some thunderstorm activity may occur along the
sea-breeze near the coast and could become organized given 35 to 40
knots of effective shear. However, westerly mid-upper level flow
should promote activity quickly moving offshore. In addition, the
NAM and ECMWF show quite extensive cloud cover which may weaken the
sea breeze circulation and make thunderstorm development less
likely. Therefore, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment across
southern Florida could support some severe weather, but storm
coverage remains questionable. Marginal severe weather probabilities
will not be added at this time.
In California, cool temperatures aloft may provide ample instability
for a few thunderstorms in coastal regions of northern California.
In addition, some weak instability may develop within the central
Valley and into the Sierra foothills where orographic enhancement
may increase thunderstorm potential.
..Bentley.. 02/04/2023
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