Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, February 19, 2023

SPC Feb 19, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through at least early Monday. ...Synopsis... Models suggest that the center of a broad, deep low over the northeastern Canadian Arctic may slowly begin a south/southwestward shift toward northern Hudson Bay later today through tonight, in response to a couple of short wave perturbations pivoting around its western and southern periphery. While the coldest low-level air emerging from the Arctic is forecast to largely remain confined to the interior Canadian Provinces, potentially cold/dry boundary-layer air likely will remain entrenched across much of the interior U.S., beneath broad mid-level troughing to the south of the Arctic low, within a belt of westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific. In lower latitudes, there appears unlikely to be much change in the strength or position of a prominent mid-level high centered over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific (roughly around 140-150 W), and a prominent subtropical high elongated along an axis from the southern Mexican Plateau into the Caribbean/Bahamas. While modest low-level moistening may occur along and south of a weakening remnant frontal zone across parts of southern Florida and the Texas coastal plain, forecast soundings indicate that this will be strongly capped by warm-layers aloft associated with the ridging. Along a positively tilted trough axis between the highs, a mid-level low may migrate northeastward toward the southern California/northern Baja coast. It appears that the colder mid-level temperatures, potentially supportive of convection capable of producing lightning, will remain offshore through this period. Otherwise, it appears that moisture return, within deep-layer south to southwesterly flow emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, may begin to contribute to at least elevated layers of weak destabilization across parts of the Southwest into the southern Great Plains. While some associated convection might briefly become capable of producing a flash or two of lightning, it currently still seems probable that the coverage of any such activity will remain generally less than 10 percent. ..Kerr/Wendt.. 02/19/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)