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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, January 3, 2023

SPC Jan 3, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PARTS OF GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas and southeast Virginia. Strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible with this activity. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A strong mid/upper shortwave trough over the Lower MS Valley and embedded within a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Wednesday morning will lift northeast toward PA/NY through the evening. Meanwhile, the larger-scale trough over the Plains will develop east toward the Mid-South/central Gulf Coast vicinity by Thursday morning. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with this system will persist over the Southeast and eastern U.S., providing ample vertical shear for organized convection. At the surface, thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing ahead of a cold front from the central Appalachians into northern/central GA, southeast AL and the western FL Panhandle. Some of these storms may be strong to severe Wednesday morning across GA/AL/FL where surface dewpoints from 65-70 F will be in place, supporting modest instability. Forecast soundings indicate effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt with enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs. This will support rotating storms within the line of convection. Isolated, semi-discrete cells may develop ahead of the eastward-advancing line of storms into the FL Panhandle and parts of southern/central GA. This activity may produce strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes through the afternoon. The strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in strong warm advection ahead of the front across the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA, and low/mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to expand northward into these areas. Thermodynamic profiles are less favorable for robust convection compared to further south, with mainly 500 J/kg or less of MLCAPE forecast. Nevertheless, strong ascent and fast deep-layer flow will support at least a marginal threat for isolated strong gusts and maybe a tornado if stronger low-level instability can develop. ..Leitman.. 01/03/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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