LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PARTS OF GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
Strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible with this
activity.
...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...
A strong mid/upper shortwave trough over the Lower MS Valley and
embedded within a larger-scale trough over the central U.S.
Wednesday morning will lift northeast toward PA/NY through the
evening. Meanwhile, the larger-scale trough over the Plains will
develop east toward the Mid-South/central Gulf Coast vicinity by
Thursday morning. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow
associated with this system will persist over the Southeast and
eastern U.S., providing ample vertical shear for organized
convection.
At the surface, thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing ahead of a
cold front from the central Appalachians into northern/central GA,
southeast AL and the western FL Panhandle. Some of these storms may
be strong to severe Wednesday morning across GA/AL/FL where surface
dewpoints from 65-70 F will be in place, supporting modest
instability. Forecast soundings indicate effective shear magnitudes
greater than 40 kt with enlarged, favorably curved low-level
hodographs. This will support rotating storms within the line of
convection. Isolated, semi-discrete cells may develop ahead of the
eastward-advancing line of storms into the FL Panhandle and parts of
southern/central GA. This activity may produce strong gusts and a
couple of tornadoes through the afternoon.
The strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in strong warm
advection ahead of the front across the eastern Carolinas into
southeast VA, and low/mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to expand
northward into these areas. Thermodynamic profiles are less
favorable for robust convection compared to further south, with
mainly 500 J/kg or less of MLCAPE forecast. Nevertheless, strong
ascent and fast deep-layer flow will support at least a marginal
threat for isolated strong gusts and maybe a tornado if stronger
low-level instability can develop.
..Leitman.. 01/03/2023
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