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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, December 15, 2022

SPC Dec 15, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of southern Georgia into northern Florida this morning, and through the afternoon across parts of the Florida Peninsula. A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds will be the main threats. ...Florida Peninsula/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... An upper-level system will span most of the country today with the low centered on Iowa. Southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the eastern Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a cold front will be located from the Florida Panhandle into central Georgia at the start of the period. Thunderstorms will be ongoing along and ahead of the front with the storms moving eastward into northern Florida and southeastern Georgia by midday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to destabilization with MLCAPE forecast to reach the 500 to 1000 J/kg range by late morning into early afternoon. In addition, strong deep-layer shear exist across much of the eastern Gulf Coast with forecast soundings showing 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment along with strong frontogenetic forcing will be favorable for squall line development. The stronger line segments should be accompanied with damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat. The severe threat will gradually shift southeastward across the southeast Georgia and the Florida Peninsula, eventually affecting the central Florida Peninsula during the mid to late afternoon. A wind-damage threat may also impact parts of the eastern Carolinas. Instability across the Carolinas will remain weak suggesting any wind-damage threat should remain isolated. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 12/15/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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