LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of southern Georgia
into northern Florida this morning, and through the afternoon across
parts of the Florida Peninsula. A few tornadoes and scattered
damaging winds will be the main threats.
...Florida Peninsula/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas...
An upper-level system will span most of the country today with the
low centered on Iowa. Southwest mid-level flow will be in place
across the eastern Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a cold front
will be located from the Florida Panhandle into central Georgia at
the start of the period. Thunderstorms will be ongoing along and
ahead of the front with the storms moving eastward into northern
Florida and southeastern Georgia by midday. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to
destabilization with MLCAPE forecast to reach the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range by late morning into early afternoon.
In addition, strong deep-layer shear exist across much of the
eastern Gulf Coast with forecast soundings showing 0-6 km shear in
the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment along with strong
frontogenetic forcing will be favorable for squall line development.
The stronger line segments should be accompanied with damaging winds
and an isolated tornado threat. The severe threat will gradually
shift southeastward across the southeast Georgia and the Florida
Peninsula, eventually affecting the central Florida Peninsula during
the mid to late afternoon. A wind-damage threat may also impact
parts of the eastern Carolinas. Instability across the Carolinas
will remain weak suggesting any wind-damage threat should remain
isolated.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 12/15/2022
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