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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, November 30, 2022

SPC Nov 30, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible across parts of the Southeast, mainly this morning. ...Southeast... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period later this morning from near the mouth of the MS River northeastward into GA. This line is expected to continue moving quickly southeastward across southern AL, the FL Panhandle, and central/southern GA through midday. A sufficiently moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the line across these areas, with weaker instability with northward extent into GA. Given the linear convective mode, scattered damaging winds should be the primary severe threat this morning. Low-level flow is forecast to gradually veer and weaken with time as a southerly low-level jet shifts northward and away from the surface warm sector. This should result in slowly weakening low-level shear through the morning. Still, a tornado or two embedded within the line may occur before the low-level flow veers/weakens too much. Convection should diminish in coverage and intensity through the afternoon across southeast GA and north FL as it encounters a less unstable airmass and becomes displaced from the stronger forcing aloft. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough initially over the Great Lakes and OH Valley will move east-northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic and New England by this evening. A strong cold front will develop eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through the day, with rather meager low-level moisture return expected along/ahead of the front. Still, the gradually increasing moisture, favorable low-level convergence along the front, and strong large-scale ascent may support the development of a low-topped frontal band within the larger precipitation shield. Strong wind gusts could accompany any such convective band. But, with surface-based instability forecast to remain negligible, the potential for convectively enhanced gusts appears too limited to include severe wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 11/30/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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