LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds and a
tornado or two will be possible across parts of the Southeast,
mainly this morning.
...Southeast...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period later this morning from near the mouth of
the MS River northeastward into GA. This line is expected to
continue moving quickly southeastward across southern AL, the FL
Panhandle, and central/southern GA through midday. A sufficiently
moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the line
across these areas, with weaker instability with northward extent
into GA. Given the linear convective mode, scattered damaging winds
should be the primary severe threat this morning. Low-level flow is
forecast to gradually veer and weaken with time as a southerly
low-level jet shifts northward and away from the surface warm
sector. This should result in slowly weakening low-level shear
through the morning. Still, a tornado or two embedded within the
line may occur before the low-level flow veers/weakens too much.
Convection should diminish in coverage and intensity through the
afternoon across southeast GA and north FL as it encounters a less
unstable airmass and becomes displaced from the stronger forcing
aloft.
...Mid-Atlantic/New England...
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough initially over the Great Lakes
and OH Valley will move east-northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic and
New England by this evening. A strong cold front will develop
eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through the day, with
rather meager low-level moisture return expected along/ahead of the
front. Still, the gradually increasing moisture, favorable low-level
convergence along the front, and strong large-scale ascent may
support the development of a low-topped frontal band within the
larger precipitation shield. Strong wind gusts could accompany any
such convective band. But, with surface-based instability forecast
to remain negligible, the potential for convectively enhanced gusts
appears too limited to include severe wind probabilities at this
time.
..Gleason/Squitieri.. 11/30/2022
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