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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, November 26, 2022

SPC Nov 26, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday from far southeast Texas to parts of the the central Gulf Coast states. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado should be the main threats. ...Gulf Coast... Pronounced upper low has shifted into the Big Bend region of west TX late this evening. This feature is forecast to advance into north-central TX by early afternoon before ejecting into southern IL by the end of the period. Intense 12hr mid-level height falls (270m) will spread downstream ahead of this feature, but only glance the Gulf Coast with more modest 30-60m falls. In response to this dynamic, ejecting system, surface low should be drawn north across east TX then into MO during the evening. This will allow a modified Gulf air mass to advance a bit inland with mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points expected within 30-50mi of the central Gulf Coast. While surface heating will be limited across this region, forecast soundings suggest moisture advection will contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy where dew point values can approach 68-70F. Latest model guidance suggests the primary cold front will approach the Sabine River Valley by sunrise, then surge into the lower MS Valley by 27/00z, and the western FL Panhandle by daybreak Sunday. LLJ is forecast to intensify across east TX early in the period and this will aid a considerable amount of convection in association with the front. Strongest convection should be noted south of the LA Coast at this time, though robust updrafts may ultimately evolve within a strongly sheared environment as upper 60s surface dew points advance inland. A few supercells will likely evolve within this moistening environment and there appears to be at least a marginal risk for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado if favorable thermodynamic conditions materialize inland. Low severe probabilities will be maintained at this time due to the limited buoyancy and stronger dynamics/forcing lifting well north of the coast. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 11/26/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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