LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday from far
southeast Texas to parts of the the central Gulf Coast states.
Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado should be the main threats.
...Gulf Coast...
Pronounced upper low has shifted into the Big Bend region of west TX
late this evening. This feature is forecast to advance into
north-central TX by early afternoon before ejecting into southern IL
by the end of the period. Intense 12hr mid-level height falls (270m)
will spread downstream ahead of this feature, but only glance the
Gulf Coast with more modest 30-60m falls. In response to this
dynamic, ejecting system, surface low should be drawn north across
east TX then into MO during the evening. This will allow a modified
Gulf air mass to advance a bit inland with mid 60s to near 70F
surface dew points expected within 30-50mi of the central Gulf
Coast. While surface heating will be limited across this region,
forecast soundings suggest moisture advection will contribute to
weak surface-based buoyancy where dew point values can approach
68-70F.
Latest model guidance suggests the primary cold front will approach
the Sabine River Valley by sunrise, then surge into the lower MS
Valley by 27/00z, and the western FL Panhandle by daybreak Sunday.
LLJ is forecast to intensify across east TX early in the period and
this will aid a considerable amount of convection in association
with the front. Strongest convection should be noted south of the LA
Coast at this time, though robust updrafts may ultimately evolve
within a strongly sheared environment as upper 60s surface dew
points advance inland. A few supercells will likely evolve within
this moistening environment and there appears to be at least a
marginal risk for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado if favorable
thermodynamic conditions materialize inland. Low severe
probabilities will be maintained at this time due to the limited
buoyancy and stronger dynamics/forcing lifting well north of the
coast.
..Darrow/Thompson.. 11/26/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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