LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
A cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across the western
Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This will occur
ahead of a substantial upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen
during the day. Due to strong forcing associated with the
upper-level trough and cold front, a line of thunderstorms will
likely develop Wednesday afternoon. This line of storms should move
eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday
afternoon. Although a wind-damage threat will be possible along the
leading edge of this line, limited moisture return and weak
instability will be problematic for a more widespread threat. An
isolated wind-damage threat could continue into the evening as the
cold front and line of storms moves into the central Appalachians.
The cold front is forecast to move through the Northeast on
Thursday, and could reintensify by midday from parts of New York and
Pennsylvania southward into the Mid Atlantic. The wind-damage threat
could affect areas as far north as New England Thursday afternoon. A
15 percent contour could be needed in either Day 4 or Day 5, once
the details become more clear in model runs that come out over the
next day or two.
...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
A cool and dry airmass is forecast to be in place across much of the
continental U.S. on Friday and over the weekend. For this reason,
organized thunderstorm activity is not expected.
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