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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, October 9, 2022

SPC Oct 9, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across the western Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This will occur ahead of a substantial upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen during the day. Due to strong forcing associated with the upper-level trough and cold front, a line of thunderstorms will likely develop Wednesday afternoon. This line of storms should move eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon. Although a wind-damage threat will be possible along the leading edge of this line, limited moisture return and weak instability will be problematic for a more widespread threat. An isolated wind-damage threat could continue into the evening as the cold front and line of storms moves into the central Appalachians. The cold front is forecast to move through the Northeast on Thursday, and could reintensify by midday from parts of New York and Pennsylvania southward into the Mid Atlantic. The wind-damage threat could affect areas as far north as New England Thursday afternoon. A 15 percent contour could be needed in either Day 4 or Day 5, once the details become more clear in model runs that come out over the next day or two. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A cool and dry airmass is forecast to be in place across much of the continental U.S. on Friday and over the weekend. For this reason, organized thunderstorm activity is not expected. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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