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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, September 7, 2022

SPC Sep 8, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic severe convective gusts remain possible over parts of the interior Northwest to northern High Plains. === Updates === ...Interior Northwest to northern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered, high-based convection (including some thunderstorms) will continue to offer some threat for severe gusts for a few more hours, mainly with relatively well-organized convection over portions of southern ID and perhaps lesser activity over central/eastern MT, as it moves over remaining deep/well-mixed boundary layers. Each of the two 15%/"slight" outlook areas has been trimmed substantially to entirely, in deference to convective trends. See SPC mesoscale discussion 1768 for more details on the activity moving into southwestern ID and associated near-term severe threat. Convection over MT is more shallow/skeletal, with barely any MLCAPE evident in modified RAOBs and forecast soundings, and should diminish in organization within the next couple hours as the foregoing boundary layer cools/stabilizes amidst weak moisture. ...West Gulf Coastal Plain... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms remain across this region, moving generally southwestward. While a strong/damaging gust or hail near severe limits cannot be ruled out, the unconditional severe potential has become too low and isolated to maintain an outlook area. Large-scale ascent/cooling -- near the thermal trough extending westward from a compact, zonally elongated mid/upper-level cyclone over the lower Delta region -- will continue to spread southward/southwestward tonight and support general thunderstorm potential atop a still-moist boundary layer. Earlier, somewhat organized, quasi-linear convection that had been over southeast TX has crossed the sea-breeze front and weakened in the somewhat more-stable seaward boundary layer, while leaving behind large pockets of outflow across the coastal plain. Additional convection farther inland across east TX will move southwestward into that environment, as well as ambient/gradual nocturnal stabilization. Surface temperatures also have begun cooling in advance of a southwestward-moving area of widely scattered thunderstorms over central TX, with roughly 30-35-kt northeasterly shear vectors supporting some multicellular organization. ..Edwards.. 09/08/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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