SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO...
...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe convective gusts remain possible over parts of the
interior Northwest to northern High Plains.
=== Updates ===
...Interior Northwest to northern High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered, high-based convection (including some
thunderstorms) will continue to offer some threat for severe gusts
for a few more hours, mainly with relatively well-organized
convection over portions of southern ID and perhaps lesser activity
over central/eastern MT, as it moves over remaining deep/well-mixed
boundary layers. Each of the two 15%/"slight" outlook areas has
been trimmed substantially to entirely, in deference to convective
trends. See SPC mesoscale discussion 1768 for more details on the
activity moving into southwestern ID and associated near-term severe
threat. Convection over MT is more shallow/skeletal, with barely
any MLCAPE evident in modified RAOBs and forecast soundings, and
should diminish in organization within the next couple hours as the
foregoing boundary layer cools/stabilizes amidst weak moisture.
...West Gulf Coastal Plain...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms remain across this
region, moving generally southwestward. While a strong/damaging
gust or hail near severe limits cannot be ruled out, the
unconditional severe potential has become too low and isolated to
maintain an outlook area. Large-scale ascent/cooling -- near the
thermal trough extending westward from a compact, zonally elongated
mid/upper-level cyclone over the lower Delta region -- will continue
to spread southward/southwestward tonight and support general
thunderstorm potential atop a still-moist boundary layer.
Earlier, somewhat organized, quasi-linear convection that had been
over southeast TX has crossed the sea-breeze front and weakened in
the somewhat more-stable seaward boundary layer, while leaving
behind large pockets of outflow across the coastal plain.
Additional convection farther inland across east TX will move
southwestward into that environment, as well as ambient/gradual
nocturnal stabilization. Surface temperatures also have begun
cooling in advance of a southwestward-moving area of widely
scattered thunderstorms over central TX, with roughly 30-35-kt
northeasterly shear vectors supporting some multicellular
organization.
..Edwards.. 09/08/2022
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