SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across a
portion of central Texas, mainly from 3 to 7 PM CDT.
...20Z Update...
No change has been made to the Marginal Risk across central TX,
where storms capable of isolated strong/severe gusts remain possible
into early evening. See MCD 1766 and the previous outlook discussion
below for more details.
..Dean.. 09/05/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022/
...Central Texas...
A mid-level low will drift southwestward across far southeast
Oklahoma and northeast Texas through tonight. The western fringe of
relatively cooler mid-level temperatures in conjunction with a belt
of 15-25 kt mid-level northerlies should overlap a confined corridor
of low to mid 60s surface dew points near the intersection of a
diffuse surface front and dryline. Within this regime, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms should develop in the mid to late afternoon.
Marginally severe hail and localized strong to severe gusts will be
possible until convection begins to weaken by around sunset.
...Midwest to Appalachians...
Cloud breaks and a moist air mass (near 70F dewpoints) will be
conducive for moderate destabilization across the Lower Ohio Valley,
although weak wind profiles should keep any stronger storms of a
pulse-type character with limited severe potential. Farther east,
modestly stronger low/mid-level southwesterly winds will reside near
and in the windward side of the Appalachians through tonight.
However, insolation will be limited by the generally prevalent
nature of existing cloud cover and precipitation. A bit more
insolation/destabilization could occur across northern/eastern
Georgia into South Carolina/western North Carolina this afternoon. A
few stronger storms could occur in this region, but organized severe
potential is currently expected to remain low.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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