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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, September 5, 2022

SPC Sep 5, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of central Texas, mainly from 3 to 7 PM CDT. ...20Z Update... No change has been made to the Marginal Risk across central TX, where storms capable of isolated strong/severe gusts remain possible into early evening. See MCD 1766 and the previous outlook discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 09/05/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022/ ...Central Texas... A mid-level low will drift southwestward across far southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas through tonight. The western fringe of relatively cooler mid-level temperatures in conjunction with a belt of 15-25 kt mid-level northerlies should overlap a confined corridor of low to mid 60s surface dew points near the intersection of a diffuse surface front and dryline. Within this regime, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in the mid to late afternoon. Marginally severe hail and localized strong to severe gusts will be possible until convection begins to weaken by around sunset. ...Midwest to Appalachians... Cloud breaks and a moist air mass (near 70F dewpoints) will be conducive for moderate destabilization across the Lower Ohio Valley, although weak wind profiles should keep any stronger storms of a pulse-type character with limited severe potential. Farther east, modestly stronger low/mid-level southwesterly winds will reside near and in the windward side of the Appalachians through tonight. However, insolation will be limited by the generally prevalent nature of existing cloud cover and precipitation. A bit more insolation/destabilization could occur across northern/eastern Georgia into South Carolina/western North Carolina this afternoon. A few stronger storms could occur in this region, but organized severe potential is currently expected to remain low. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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