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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, September 19, 2022

SPC Sep 19, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging gusts are possible for parts of the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...WI east into Lower MI... A large mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the south-central U.S. while a closed mid-level low moves little to the west of north-central CA. A mid-level speed max and associated mid-level trough will move east-southeastward from the southern Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest by early Wednesday. A surface low will develop east across northern Ontario while an attendant cold front sweeps southeast across the Upper Midwest. A couple of showers/thunderstorms are possible over WI/Lake MI during the morning in association with 850-mb WAA. This activity will likely dissipate during the day before a renewed chance for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms occurs during the afternoon/evening. Model guidance varies considerably on the location of the later-day storm development due in part to a capping inversion. It seems plausible at least a few storms will eventually develop near the front. Long hodographs coupled with a moist/strongly unstable boundary layer will conditionally support a supercell mode. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the primary threats before this activity likely weakens after sunset. ..Smith.. 09/19/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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