SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WISCONSIN
INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and damaging gusts are possible for parts of the
western Great Lakes on Tuesday.
...WI east into Lower MI...
A large mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
south-central U.S. while a closed mid-level low moves little to the
west of north-central CA. A mid-level speed max and associated
mid-level trough will move east-southeastward from the southern
Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest by early Wednesday. A
surface low will develop east across northern Ontario while an
attendant cold front sweeps southeast across the Upper Midwest. A
couple of showers/thunderstorms are possible over WI/Lake MI during
the morning in association with 850-mb WAA. This activity will
likely dissipate during the day before a renewed chance for isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms occurs during the
afternoon/evening. Model guidance varies considerably on the
location of the later-day storm development due in part to a capping
inversion. It seems plausible at least a few storms will eventually
develop near the front. Long hodographs coupled with a
moist/strongly unstable boundary layer will conditionally support a
supercell mode. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the primary
threats before this activity likely weakens after sunset.
..Smith.. 09/19/2022
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