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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, September 18, 2022

SPC Sep 19, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN IOWA...FAR NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms, capable of very large hail, along with a few severe gusts and a tornado or two, may occur from extreme southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri into central Illinois tonight. ...01Z Update... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms continue to develop ahead of a surface cold front within a low-level warm-air advection regime across parts of far eastern IA. While deep-layer forcing for ascent is subtle, these storms should continue to progress eastward in a moderately unstable environment. 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE is present, driven by low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per regional 00Z soundings and surface observations). The observed soundings and VAD profilers also show modest 0-3 km hodograph curvature and elongation from 3 km upward, resulting in 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. The aforementioned hodograph structure and bulk shear magnitudes would support strong mid-level rotation/sustained supercell structures with any storm that manages to mature, with large hail (some 2+ inch diameter) the main threat initially. Given the modest low-level hodograph curvature, a tornado or two is also possible with the stronger storms. A few severe gusts may also occur should storm mergers occur and support upscale growth/MCS development. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)