SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across portions of
northern Minnesota and from central Kansas into southern Iowa.
...01z Update...
Notable short-wave trough has advanced into the upper Red River
Valley early this evening. Low-level warm advection remains focused
across northern MN as a front remains draped from the south side of
Lake Superior-HZX-XVG. Scattered convection has developed ahead of
the short wave from the ND/SD/MN border region, northeast to near
FOZ. This activity is expected to spread across northern MN toward
the Arrowhead later this evening as the east-west boundary advances
to near the international border. Hail and strong wind gusts remain
possible with this activity.
Farther south across the central Plains into southern IA, scattered
diurnally driven convection has intensified over the last hour or so
from west of HUT into Montgomery County IA. Strong boundary-layer
heating effectively removed inhibition along the dry line where
ample shear/buoyancy favor supercells. Additionally, early-day MCS
that spread across southern IA has generated an outflow that is
draped along the IA/MO border into southeast NE. This boundary may
also serve to focus convection over the next several hours. LLJ
currently extends across eastern KS into southern IA and this should
encourage updraft longevity, at least through late evening.
Hail/wind remain possible with these storms.
..Darrow.. 09/18/2022
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