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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, September 17, 2022

SPC Sep 18, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across portions of northern Minnesota and from central Kansas into southern Iowa. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough has advanced into the upper Red River Valley early this evening. Low-level warm advection remains focused across northern MN as a front remains draped from the south side of Lake Superior-HZX-XVG. Scattered convection has developed ahead of the short wave from the ND/SD/MN border region, northeast to near FOZ. This activity is expected to spread across northern MN toward the Arrowhead later this evening as the east-west boundary advances to near the international border. Hail and strong wind gusts remain possible with this activity. Farther south across the central Plains into southern IA, scattered diurnally driven convection has intensified over the last hour or so from west of HUT into Montgomery County IA. Strong boundary-layer heating effectively removed inhibition along the dry line where ample shear/buoyancy favor supercells. Additionally, early-day MCS that spread across southern IA has generated an outflow that is draped along the IA/MO border into southeast NE. This boundary may also serve to focus convection over the next several hours. LLJ currently extends across eastern KS into southern IA and this should encourage updraft longevity, at least through late evening. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 09/18/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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