SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of
the central Plains this evening.
...01z Update...
Mid-level short-wave trough has advanced across the Great Basin into
WY early this evening with an associated 500mb speed max translating
across northern CO toward southwestern NE. While strong
boundary-layer heating contributed to convective initiation,
large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave appears to be aiding
upscale growth which currently arcs from south central SD-central
NE-extreme northeast CO. This activity is propagating east within a
corridor of modest instability and focused low-level warm advection.
Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen across KS into
south-central NE later this evening, suggesting this corridor of
storms may linger with some intensity for several hours. Large hail
and isolated severe wind gusts remain possible with these storms.
Reference MCD #1787 for more information.
..Darrow.. 09/17/2022
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