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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, September 13, 2022

SPC Sep 13, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW YORK INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts, isolated hail, and a brief tornado or two are possible today from eastern New York into parts of New England, with the greatest threat expected during the afternoon into the early evening. ...Eastern New York into parts of New England... A midlevel cyclone is expected to traverse the lower Great Lakes region during the day today, before evolving into an open wave and moving across northern New England this evening. As this occurs, a surface cyclone is forecast to gradually deepen over northern New England into southern Quebec, as an attendant cold front moves across New York into southern New England by this evening. Multiple rounds of convection are possible from eastern New York into parts of New England today, as ascent associated with the approaching midlevel cyclone spreads across a relatively moist environment. Morning convection/cloudiness may tend to limit diurnal destabilization, but some modest heating will be possible in the wake of early-day activity, prior to the arrival of the cold front. MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is expected by early afternoon, with locally higher values possible wherever temperatures can warm into the mid/upper 70s F. Renewed storm development will be possible along/ahead of the front by early afternoon, with increasing deep-layer shear supporting the potential for a few organized storm clusters and/or marginal supercells. Even if organized storms develop, some uncertainty remains regarding the severe potential, with the environment not expected to be overly favorable for any particular hazard. Wind damage appears to be the most likely threat, given the potential for a few longer-lived clusters to move through the region. A 15% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in the development of organized convection during the afternoon. Generally weak midlevel lapse rates will limit the overall hail threat, though some hail cannot be ruled out with any sustained supercell. Low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but a brief tornado or two will also be possible, especially where surface winds become backed in the vicinity of any boundaries generated by early convection and/or differential-heating zones. ...Arizona... A midlevel trough (associated with the remnants of T.C. Kay) is expected to gradually weaken and shift northeastward through the day. Some drying and reduction in storm coverage is expected across southwest/south-central AZ, but scattered thunderstorms are again expected from northern into southeast AZ during the afternoon/evening. At this time, deep-layer shear is expected to remain rather weak, which should tend to limit any organized severe-thunderstorm risk. ..Dean/Weinman.. 09/13/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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