SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND MAINE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur over parts of the
central Great Plains, northern New York, and eastern Maine for the
rest of this afternoon into this evening.
...Central Plains...
The Marginal Risk area has been trimmed across parts of western NE,
in the wake of earlier convection. The Marginal Risk has also been
expanded slightly across northeast CO, downstream of a small
thunderstorm cluster that has formed near Greeley. Finally, a 5%
hail area has been added from central into northeast NE, where
somewhat greater instability is noted and ongoing storms have
occasionally generated radar-estimated hail sizes of greater than 1
inch. See MCD 1753 for more details regarding the severe threat in
this area.
...Maine...
The 5% hail area has been dropped across Maine, due to limited
instability, but storms capable of gusty winds remain possible
through late afternoon, and the 5% wind area (and Marginal Risk) has
been retained. See MCD 1755 for more information.
...Northern New York...
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk in northern New York.
See MCD 1754 and the previous discussion below for more details.
..Dean.. 08/31/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022/
...Maine...
In the wake of abating early day precipitation and cloud cover,
isolated thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon across
west/central Maine within a narrow zone of modest destabilization
near the eastward-moving front. While overall buoyancy will be
modest, sufficient heating/boundary layer mixing in conjunction with
moderately strong low/mid-level westerlies could yield some stronger
wind gusts related to thunderstorms.
...Northern New York...
While boundary-layer mixing will continue to occur within the
warming post-frontal environment, sufficient residual low-level
moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) in the presence of relatively
cool mid-level temperatures (around -16C at 500 mb) will support
modest destabilization and minimal inhibition by mid-afternoon. Some
stronger low-topped storms may develop over the region and/or spread
east-southeastward out of Ontario. While not overly hot, sufficient
boundary-layer mixing and semi-strong westerlies could yield some
strong/locally severe storms with wind gusts, until around sunset.
...Central Plains...
To the east of ongoing early day storms, additional thunderstorm
development through late this afternoon/early evening is expected
across Nebraska and northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas. This should
semi-focus along a weak surface low and southwest/northeast-oriented
boundary. Hot temperatures and deeply mixed boundary layers will be
supportive of some stronger downdrafts amid modest-strength wind
profiles. Strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with the
multicells/clusters of storms that develop and spread southeastward
late this afternoon and evening.
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