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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, August 31, 2022

SPC Aug 31, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur over parts of the central Great Plains, northern New York, and eastern Maine for the rest of this afternoon into this evening. ...Central Plains... The Marginal Risk area has been trimmed across parts of western NE, in the wake of earlier convection. The Marginal Risk has also been expanded slightly across northeast CO, downstream of a small thunderstorm cluster that has formed near Greeley. Finally, a 5% hail area has been added from central into northeast NE, where somewhat greater instability is noted and ongoing storms have occasionally generated radar-estimated hail sizes of greater than 1 inch. See MCD 1753 for more details regarding the severe threat in this area. ...Maine... The 5% hail area has been dropped across Maine, due to limited instability, but storms capable of gusty winds remain possible through late afternoon, and the 5% wind area (and Marginal Risk) has been retained. See MCD 1755 for more information. ...Northern New York... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk in northern New York. See MCD 1754 and the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 08/31/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022/ ...Maine... In the wake of abating early day precipitation and cloud cover, isolated thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon across west/central Maine within a narrow zone of modest destabilization near the eastward-moving front. While overall buoyancy will be modest, sufficient heating/boundary layer mixing in conjunction with moderately strong low/mid-level westerlies could yield some stronger wind gusts related to thunderstorms. ...Northern New York... While boundary-layer mixing will continue to occur within the warming post-frontal environment, sufficient residual low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) in the presence of relatively cool mid-level temperatures (around -16C at 500 mb) will support modest destabilization and minimal inhibition by mid-afternoon. Some stronger low-topped storms may develop over the region and/or spread east-southeastward out of Ontario. While not overly hot, sufficient boundary-layer mixing and semi-strong westerlies could yield some strong/locally severe storms with wind gusts, until around sunset. ...Central Plains... To the east of ongoing early day storms, additional thunderstorm development through late this afternoon/early evening is expected across Nebraska and northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas. This should semi-focus along a weak surface low and southwest/northeast-oriented boundary. Hot temperatures and deeply mixed boundary layers will be supportive of some stronger downdrafts amid modest-strength wind profiles. Strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with the multicells/clusters of storms that develop and spread southeastward late this afternoon and evening. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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