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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, August 28, 2022

SPC Aug 29, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin this evening into tonight. Isolated to widely scattered large hail and damaging gusts are possible, and an isolated risk for a tornado is possible over the southern half of Minnesota. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery early this evening shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving across southern Manitoba and parts of the Upper Midwest/Dakotas. A cold front is beginning to serve as a focus for thunderstorm initiation as large-scale ascent continues to overspread a moist/unstable warm sector over much of MN. Vertical shear will support organized storms, including both supercells and eventually an organized cluster or two later tonight. Large hail, severe gusts, and an isolated risk for a tornado will be possible, especially over the southern two-thirds of MN and eventually into western WI late. It remains uncertain whether isolated storms will develop farther southwest into eastern NE and western IA. Some model guidance shows isolated storms developing later this evening, so will maintain low-severe probabilities. ...Central OK... A cluster of strong to locally severe thunderstorms will likely continue for the next few hours as cold pools consolidate near and north of the I-40 corridor in central OK. The 00z Norman, OK raob showed steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8.5 deg C/km) with a 1.9 inches PW. The larger cores will lend a short-term risk for wet microbursts before further convective overturning and cooling surface temperatures lessen the threat for localized severe gusts. ...Lower MI... A linear MCS continues northeast this evening across the southern third of Lake Michigan in immediate advance of a mid-level trough moving into the central Great Lakes tonight. Isolated damaging gusts will be the primary concern for the next few hours before increasing convective inhibition and lessening buoyancy diminish the wind risk. For short-term details, refer to MCD #1736. ..Smith.. 08/29/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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