SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across Minnesota into northwest
Wisconsin this evening into tonight. Isolated to widely scattered
large hail and damaging gusts are possible, and an isolated risk for
a tornado is possible over the southern half of Minnesota.
...Upper Midwest...
Satellite imagery early this evening shows a potent mid-level
shortwave trough moving across southern Manitoba and parts of the
Upper Midwest/Dakotas. A cold front is beginning to serve as a
focus for thunderstorm initiation as large-scale ascent continues to
overspread a moist/unstable warm sector over much of MN. Vertical
shear will support organized storms, including both supercells and
eventually an organized cluster or two later tonight. Large hail,
severe gusts, and an isolated risk for a tornado will be possible,
especially over the southern two-thirds of MN and eventually into
western WI late. It remains uncertain whether isolated storms will
develop farther southwest into eastern NE and western IA. Some
model guidance shows isolated storms developing later this evening,
so will maintain low-severe probabilities.
...Central OK...
A cluster of strong to locally severe thunderstorms will likely
continue for the next few hours as cold pools consolidate near and
north of the I-40 corridor in central OK. The 00z Norman, OK raob
showed steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8.5 deg C/km) with a 1.9 inches PW.
The larger cores will lend a short-term risk for wet microbursts
before further convective overturning and cooling surface
temperatures lessen the threat for localized severe gusts.
...Lower MI...
A linear MCS continues northeast this evening across the southern
third of Lake Michigan in immediate advance of a mid-level trough
moving into the central Great Lakes tonight. Isolated damaging
gusts will be the primary concern for the next few hours before
increasing convective inhibition and lessening buoyancy diminish the
wind risk. For short-term details, refer to MCD #1736.
..Smith.. 08/29/2022
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