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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, August 27, 2022

SPC Aug 28, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR IOWA...WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA; SOUTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening from Iowa northward into parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, and in southeast Montana. ...Synopsis... Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the central Great Plains and in parts of the Upper Midwest. Farther west, a more pronounced trough is evident on satellite imagery over western MT and it is forecast to reach the MT/Dakotas border by daybreak. Several thunderstorm clusters are ongoing early this evening from the TX Panhandle northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Low-level warm air advection will likely promote additional showers/thunderstorms developing this evening within the warm conveyor over the IA/MN/WI vicinity. In the near term (through 03 UTC), the risk for an isolated severe storm may continue mainly across parts of IA into WI and southern MN in areas yet to be convectively overturned. Adequate shear on the KARX VAD will support storm organization. The primary risk with the stronger storms will be strong to locally severe gusts. Maintained a confined corridor of low tornado probabilities for lingering supercell potential in the proximity to the warm front. Farther west over southeast MT, a relatively low PW environment for thunderstorms will favor strong outflow with larger thunderstorm cores. The risk for localized severe gusts associated with this activity will probably linger into the mid-late evening due to strengthening flow fields and steep mid-level lapse rates. ..Smith.. 08/28/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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