SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
IOWA...WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA; SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening from
Iowa northward into parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, and in
southeast Montana.
...Synopsis...
Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude mid-level
trough moving east across the central Great Plains and in parts of
the Upper Midwest. Farther west, a more pronounced trough is
evident on satellite imagery over western MT and it is forecast to
reach the MT/Dakotas border by daybreak.
Several thunderstorm clusters are ongoing early this evening from
the TX Panhandle northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Low-level
warm air advection will likely promote additional
showers/thunderstorms developing this evening within the warm
conveyor over the IA/MN/WI vicinity. In the near term (through 03
UTC), the risk for an isolated severe storm may continue mainly
across parts of IA into WI and southern MN in areas yet to be
convectively overturned. Adequate shear on the KARX VAD will
support storm organization. The primary risk with the stronger
storms will be strong to locally severe gusts. Maintained a
confined corridor of low tornado probabilities for lingering
supercell potential in the proximity to the warm front.
Farther west over southeast MT, a relatively low PW environment for
thunderstorms will favor strong outflow with larger thunderstorm
cores. The risk for localized severe gusts associated with this
activity will probably linger into the mid-late evening due to
strengthening flow fields and steep mid-level lapse rates.
..Smith.. 08/28/2022
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