SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...SOUTHEAST MONTANA...AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS
EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
western Dakotas and southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming this
evening.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a mid-level shortwave trough
progressing east along the MT/Canadian border. A convectively
augmented mid-level shortwave trough/MCV is moving east-northeast
across the eastern Dakotas and moving into northwest MN later
tonight. Farther east, a mid-level trough will continue moving east
across the Northeast and southeast Canada through tonight.
In the low levels, a front will move east clearing much of the
Northeast coastline by early Saturday morning. An ill-defined
surface pattern exists across the north-central U.S.
Going forward this evening into tonight, widely scattered storms
this evening in the vicinity of the Black Hills will likely continue
to pose an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts through the
late evening. Steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and adequate
50-kt westerly 8-km flow (per KUDX VAD) will support some storm
organization. As the boundary layer cools this evening, a gradual
lessening of instability and storm intensity is expected before the
severe risk diminishes tonight.
Elsewhere, general thunderstorms over parts of the Appalachians and
Interior West will lessen in coverage through the evening.
..Smith.. 08/27/2022
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