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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, August 25, 2022

SPC Aug 26, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AND ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may continue to impact parts of the Black Hills and adjacent high plains, as well as parts of the Montana Rockies, into this evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe storms. ...01Z Update... Within weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow, broad/weak troughing, with an embedded mid-level low, will continue to gradually shift eastward across the northern Intermountain Region/Rockies. Preceding the main low, a smaller scale cyclonic vorticity center/lobe is slowly approaching the Black Hills vicinity. This feature is translating eastward along the northeastern periphery of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air nosing east of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, with weak lower/mid tropospheric warm advection now generally focused across the Black Hills and adjacent plains. Relatively moist easterly low-level flow to the cool side of a zone of stronger differential surface heating, beneath the edge of the elevated mixed-layer air, has contributed to a corridor of moderately large mixed-layer CAPE (up to 2000 J/kg). This is supporting scattered vigorous thunderstorms across eastern Wyoming, from near Gillette into areas east of Douglas. While the deep-layer mean flow is weak, pronounced veering from easterly and southeasterly to westerly with height is contributing to shear at least marginally sufficient for supercells. And ongoing storms may maintain strength another couple of hours, slowly spreading eastward toward the Black Hills. Aided by the large-scale forcing for ascent, there appears some potential for convection to consolidate into a slowly organizing cluster which could be accompanied by a few strong surface gusts before weakening later tonight. Otherwise, a few stronger to occasionally severe storms may maintain strength another couple of hours, near/beneath the primary mid-level thermal trough across the higher terrain of western Montana, before the loss of daytime heating and eastward progression of the mid-level impulse contribute to weakening trends by late evening. ..Kerr.. 08/26/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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