SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA EASTWARD TO LOWER
MICHIGAN...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm gusts (some over 75 mph), a couple of
tornadoes and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening
from the Upper Midwest to the Central Appalachians.
...Discussion...
The general forecast reasoning as laid out in prior outlooks remains
valid, with convection generally evolving as anticipated. As such,
most of the changes to the outlook being included in this update
reflect progression of the convective cluster over the Upper
Mississippi Valley area.
The most substantial adjustments being included, are to remove
probabilities from portions of Ohio in the wake of the convective
line which has now crossed the Ohio River, and to expand
probabilities across the Shenandoah Valley to allow for a bit more
room for eastward progression of ongoing storms/severe potential.
..Goss.. 07/23/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022/
...Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes...
Current MCS across southern Minnesota with a recent history of
measured strong/severe wind gusts should continue to organize/grow
upscale as it thrives along the instability gradient toward southern
Wisconsin and far northeast Iowa and possibly far northern Illinois
through the afternoon. Damaging winds will likely be the most common
hazard, but isolated large hail may also occur along with at least
some tornado risk. Additional severe storms are also likely to
develop along the southeastward-moving front this afternoon/early
evening across southern Minnesota/northern Iowa southwestward into
the central Plains, including parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas,
where severe-caliber wind gusts will be most probable risk.
...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A quasi-linear MCS persists at midday across Ohio with at least some
persistent potential for wind gusts, with a bit of rejuvenation
possible as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes.
Additional isolated/episodic severe storms will remain possible
across northern Illinois/northern Indiana into Ohio along the
trailing boundary and atop the remnant surface cold pool. A
secondary round of storms via the Minnesota/Wisconsin MCS could move
into parts of the region later tonight, most probable in areas
farther to the north toward the Lake Michigan vicinity.
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