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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, July 23, 2022

SPC Jul 23, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA EASTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AREA...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts (some over 75 mph), a couple of tornadoes and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the Upper Midwest to the Central Appalachians. ...Discussion... The general forecast reasoning as laid out in prior outlooks remains valid, with convection generally evolving as anticipated. As such, most of the changes to the outlook being included in this update reflect progression of the convective cluster over the Upper Mississippi Valley area. The most substantial adjustments being included, are to remove probabilities from portions of Ohio in the wake of the convective line which has now crossed the Ohio River, and to expand probabilities across the Shenandoah Valley to allow for a bit more room for eastward progression of ongoing storms/severe potential. ..Goss.. 07/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022/ ...Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes... Current MCS across southern Minnesota with a recent history of measured strong/severe wind gusts should continue to organize/grow upscale as it thrives along the instability gradient toward southern Wisconsin and far northeast Iowa and possibly far northern Illinois through the afternoon. Damaging winds will likely be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail may also occur along with at least some tornado risk. Additional severe storms are also likely to develop along the southeastward-moving front this afternoon/early evening across southern Minnesota/northern Iowa southwestward into the central Plains, including parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, where severe-caliber wind gusts will be most probable risk. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... A quasi-linear MCS persists at midday across Ohio with at least some persistent potential for wind gusts, with a bit of rejuvenation possible as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Additional isolated/episodic severe storms will remain possible across northern Illinois/northern Indiana into Ohio along the trailing boundary and atop the remnant surface cold pool. A secondary round of storms via the Minnesota/Wisconsin MCS could move into parts of the region later tonight, most probable in areas farther to the north toward the Lake Michigan vicinity. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC