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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, July 20, 2022

SPC Jul 20, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an upper low will persist over eastern Canada this upcoming weekend. Upper ridging should also remain centered over the southern CONUS in this time frame. In between these two features, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday. Rich low-level moisture should be in place ahead of a front across parts of the Upper Midwest, with moderate to locally strong instability forecast. Enhanced mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough should act to organize any thunderstorms that can develop along/ahead of the front Saturday afternoon and evening. At this point, there is enough confidence in robust thunderstorms developing to introduce a 15% severe area for parts of the Upper Midwest on Saturday. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a mix of multicells and supercells, with some potential for an MCS and greater threat for severe winds to develop as convection possibly grows upscale along the front. Some severe threat may exist on Day 5/Sunday across parts of the Northeast into the OH Valley ahead of a front as an upper trough continues eastward. But, there is currently too much uncertainty regarding forecast instability to include a 15% severe delineation. The predictability of organized severe thunderstorms quickly decreases from Day 6/Monday onward, as generally low-amplitude perturbations move across the northern tier of the CONUS on the northern periphery of a persistent upper ridge. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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