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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, July 2, 2022

SPC Jul 2, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are expected across southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic States through early evening. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the northern Great Plains from the late afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 07/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022/ ...Southern New England to Mid-Atlantic States... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon along a northeast/southwest-oriented surface cold front from southwest New England into PA and a lee trough extending south-southwest into western VA. Stronger deep-layer shear will be confined to the southern New England to NY portion amid predominant southwesterly flow. Progressively weaker shear will be noted with southern extent into VA, but this will be compensated by larger buoyancy given greater boundary-layer heating with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. The overall setup will likely foster a mix of transient supercells and multicell clusters spreading towards the coast, before weakening during the early evening. Scattered damaging winds will be the primary threat, with isolated severe hail also possible. ...Northern Great Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon along a modest baroclinic zone and weak surface trough near the MT/ND/SK border area. This initial activity should be higher-based amid MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg as surface dew points mix down into the upper 40s to low 50s. While low-level winds will be weak and the region will remain in close proximity to a low-amplitude mid-level ridge, adequate elongation of the mid to upper hodograph should foster a few supercells. Clustering into a small MCS is likely this evening as storms spread towards greater PW emanating northwest from NE into SD and a southerly low-level jet strengthens in advance of the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough. This may yield a persistent, although probably isolated, severe threat into the overnight towards central SD. A mix of large hail and severe wind gusts is anticipated. ...Lower OH Valley to KS/OK... An MCV over northwest MO will drift east to the north of a predominately west/east-oriented baroclinic zone across the Lower OH Valley towards the KS/OK border. While mid-level lapse rates will be modest, robust boundary-layer heating to the south of the composite front/outflow boundaries should foster a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. While background vertical shear will be weak, some enhancement of mid-level westerlies attendant to the MCV should be sufficient for a few multicell clusters. Confidence is low in whether a more organized cluster may develop given the myriad of potential boundary-interaction processes and upscale cold-pool aggregation. A broad cat 1/MRGL mainly for the threat of isolated damaging winds remains warranted. ...Interior Northwest... Increasing large-scale ascent owing to approach of a shortwave trough from the northeast Pacific will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle to yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms across central/eastern OR towards the southern ID Panhandle. Forecast soundings suggest that stronger speed shear will generally be confined to the upper portion of the modest buoyancy profile amid 40s to perhaps low 50s surface dew points. A few discrete cells may acquire transient, mid-level updraft rotation, supporting a threat for marginally severe hail. Otherwise, isolated severe wind gusts should be the main hazard given a well-mixed environment. ...Coastal NC... The expected asymmetrical nature of deep convection associated with TC Colin and weak low-level kinematic fields for tornado potential over land suggest that a weak/brief tornado threat appears negligible. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC