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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, July 19, 2022

SPC Jul 19, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW ENGLAND AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible over New England and central portions of Mississippi and Alabama on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over AZ with a ridge extending northward into the northern Rockies. A low-amplitude mid-level ridge will extend east from the southern Great Plains into the GA/Carolinas, which will be south of broad, cyclonic mid-level flow from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast. A mid-level disturbance will move northeastward across Ontario/southern Quebec and through New England during the period. In the low levels, a front will push east across the Northeast while the trailing portion of this increasingly diffuse boundary will extend from the Carolinas westward into the Arklatex. ...Northeast... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over western/northern NY during the morning. Cloud breaks and strong heating east of this convection will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon. A seasonably moist airmass featuring upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints will become moderately unstable. The erosion of a weak cap will likely occur over the higher terrain of VT/NH and near the front over central NY with scattered storms likely by early-mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show effective shear 25-45 kt supporting organized storms, including bands and probably several supercells. The main threats will be damaging gusts and large hail, but an isolated tornado risk could also materialize over New England where shear will be strongest. This activity will likely move to the coast by the evening. ...Southeast VA into the Carolinas and Deep South and into north TX... A very moist boundary layer will become very unstable by early afternoon across MS/AL where model guidance shows mid 70s surface dewpoints and MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg by early afternoon. Several clusters of pulse thunderstorms will likely develop. The large CAPE/PW environment will support water-loaded microbursts with the more intense cores as this activity slowly rolls southeast. Strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) will be capable of widely scattered wind damage during the mid afternoon to the early evening. Farther west into LA/north TX, storm coverage will be less (widely spaced thunderstorms) but deeply mixed boundary layers featuring temperatures in the 100s deg F in TX, may result in isolated severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible from GA into the Carolinas/VA during the afternoon. This activity will likely diminish by sunset. ..Smith.. 07/19/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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