SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW ENGLAND
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are
possible over New England and central portions of Mississippi and
Alabama on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over AZ with a ridge
extending northward into the northern Rockies. A low-amplitude
mid-level ridge will extend east from the southern Great Plains into
the GA/Carolinas, which will be south of broad, cyclonic mid-level
flow from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast. A mid-level
disturbance will move northeastward across Ontario/southern Quebec
and through New England during the period. In the low levels, a
front will push east across the Northeast while the trailing portion
of this increasingly diffuse boundary will extend from the Carolinas
westward into the Arklatex.
...Northeast...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over
western/northern NY during the morning. Cloud breaks and strong
heating east of this convection will result in strong
destabilization by early afternoon. A seasonably moist airmass
featuring upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints will become moderately
unstable. The erosion of a weak cap will likely occur over the
higher terrain of VT/NH and near the front over central NY with
scattered storms likely by early-mid afternoon. Forecast soundings
show effective shear 25-45 kt supporting organized storms, including
bands and probably several supercells. The main threats will be
damaging gusts and large hail, but an isolated tornado risk could
also materialize over New England where shear will be strongest.
This activity will likely move to the coast by the evening.
...Southeast VA into the Carolinas and Deep South and into north
TX...
A very moist boundary layer will become very unstable by early
afternoon across MS/AL where model guidance shows mid 70s surface
dewpoints and MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg by early afternoon. Several
clusters of pulse thunderstorms will likely develop. The large
CAPE/PW environment will support water-loaded microbursts with the
more intense cores as this activity slowly rolls southeast. Strong
to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) will be capable of widely
scattered wind damage during the mid afternoon to the early evening.
Farther west into LA/north TX, storm coverage will be less (widely
spaced thunderstorms) but deeply mixed boundary layers featuring
temperatures in the 100s deg F in TX, may result in isolated severe
gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible from GA into the
Carolinas/VA during the afternoon. This activity will likely
diminish by sunset.
..Smith.. 07/19/2022
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