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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, June 24, 2022

SPC Jun 24, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with the potential for widespread damaging wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are expected from the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... Only made a minor change by removing low-wind probabilities over northeast FL in wake of storms moving south-southwest over the northern and central part of the FL Peninsula. Elsewhere, no change was made. ..Smith.. 06/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022/ ...ND/SD/MN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough across the northern Rockies today, with an embedded shortwave trough currently along the MT/WY border. This feature will track into the northern Plains later today, with large scale forcing for ascent overspreading parts of the Dakotas. Strong heating across eastern/central ND and convergence along a surface boundary will lead to afternoon thunderstorm development from south-central into northeast ND. Other storms will form by late afternoon to the north of the boundary across western/central ND as the upper trough approaches. Forecast soundings suggest strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-4500 J/kg) and favorable effective shear for supercell storm structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms are expected to develop southward along boundary into central SD during the evening, with gradual upscale growth into bowing line segments. This activity will spread into western MN with the risk of rather widespread damaging winds. ...Northeast WY/northwest SD... A consensus of 12z model guidance shows a cluster of afternoon thunderstorms forming over northeast WY and the Black Hills region. Moisture is more limited in this area, yielding MLCAPE values only into the 1000 J/kg range. However, steep lapse rates, cool temperatures aloft (-12C at 500mb), and 30-40 knots of westerly flow mid-level flow may result in a few supercells capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast NE and vicinity... Morning convection has resulted in an outflow boundary extending from western MO into eastern KS. This boundary is forecast to drift northward toward the KS/NE border by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing relatively large hodographs and strong instability - posing a conditional risk of severe storms. However, no 12z CAM guidance shows any thunderstorms forming in this area due to a relatively warm capping layer. Have therefore removed the SLGT, but continue to acknowledge the conditional risk of significant severe weather if a storm can initiate/persist. ...GA/FL... Numerous afternoon thunderstorms are expected from the FL peninsula into central GA. A hot, humid, and very unstable air mass is present in this corridor with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Shear is weak, but multicell storms capable of locally strong/damaging wet microbursts appear possible. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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