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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

SPC Jun 21, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across northern High Plains, the central Plains, and Upper Midwest on Thursday. ...Central Plains... Upper ridging is forecast to be centered over the southern Plains early Thursday morning. This upper ridge, which will extend across much of the southern third of the CONUS, is expected to remain largely in place throughout the period. A subtle shortwave trough will likely traverse the northern periphery of this upper ridge, moving from the central Rockies eastward across the central Plains throughout the period. An associated surface low should move eastward just ahead of this shortwave. Ascent attendant to the shortwave combined low-level convergence in the vicinity of this surface low and strong buoyancy will likely result thunderstorm development. Upper flow will be modest, but veering wind profiles should still result in enough vertical shear for storm organization and a few strong to severe storms. Subtle character of the shortwave and timing difference within the guidance introduce some uncertainty regarding storm coverage and the most probable location for development. This uncertainty merits keeping severe probabilities at 5% for this outlook. ...Northern High Plains... Given the presence of the expansive upper ridging over the southern CONUS, any stronger westerly flow aloft will be displaced north to the international border vicinity. A shortwave trough embedded within this stronger flow is forecast to move from British Columbia into Saskatchewan. Enhanced southwesterly flow throughout the base of this shortwave should expand across the northern Rockies. Modest large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture coincident with this increasing mid-level flow could support a few strong thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern Dakotas/Upper Midwest... Strong buoyancy is expected to develop Thursday afternoon as a result of ample low-level moisture, strong daytime heating, and relatively cool temperatures aloft. A weak surface boundary may be exist over the region, with convergence along the boundary just enough to produce isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust buoyancy, a few strong updrafts capable of damaging wind gust and/or hail are possible. ..Mosier.. 06/21/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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