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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, June 11, 2022

SPC Jun 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop from the northern Rockies into the middle and lower Missouri Valley Saturday into Saturday night. Damaging winds and hail will be most likely. An isolated tornado is possible over the middle Missouri Valley and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough will remain over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high over the Mid Atlantic providing stable conditions. To the west, upper ridging will occur over the Plains, with gradual height falls occurring over the Pacific Northwest. A weak feature may round the upper ridge into the northern High Plains late in the day, aiding lift from MT into SD. Lift may also be focused over the mid MO Valley during the late afternoon/evening in a low-level warm advection regime. Here, 850 mb winds around 30 kt will aid theta-e advection. At the surface, ample low-level moisture will exist from the central Plains to the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast, with the greatest instability forecast from the central Plains to the ArkLaTex. A weak cold front will drop south across MN and WI, with another boundary moving across NE and into northern KS. The combination of strong instability and sufficient lift is expected to result in a small area of severe thunderstorm potential over the mid MO Valley late in the day into the evening. ...Eastern NE and KS...northern MO...southwest IA... Dewpoints are expected to rise through the 70s by late afternoon from both advection and evapotranspiration, resulting in strong instability profiles. MLCAPE may exceed 4000-5000 J/kg by 00Z over eastern KS. A few early day storms may occur from southeast SD into IA, in a zone of strong theta-e advection at 850 mb. Some of this activity could pose a marginal hail or wind threat early. By late afternoon, the front will push across NE, and enhance convergence. In addition, there could be outflow reinforcement and/or ongoing storms from IA into eastern NE. The greatest severe risk is expected from near 00Z into the 06-09Z time frame, from far southeast NE into eastern KS and parts of far western MO. Moderate west/northwest flow aloft will favor a south/southeastward-moving cell and/or cluster of storms, capable of damaging hail and wind. Depending on actual boundary-layer moisture quality, isolated significant hail reports or wind gusts could occur. A tornado may occur during the first few hours prior to storms growing upscale. If an MCS forms, the severe risk may persist a bit farther south toward the OK/MO border. ...Southeast MT into SD... A gradual flattening of the upper ridge will occur over the region, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. Surface convergence will increase during the day across southern MT as a weak lee trough develops toward the Black Hills. Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass but instability will be weak as dewpoints struggle to reach the 50s F. Strong deep-layer shear should allow for hail/wind threat across southeast MT and into western SD during the evening. Several CAMs indicate at least one bowing structure, suggesting severe gusts may be the primary risk. Given the narrow corridor of potential and questions regarding instability, will defer potential Slight Risk to later outlook updates. ..Jewell/Jirak.. 06/11/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC