SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
South Dakota and Nebraska Saturday evening and overnight.
...Synopsis...
Mature shortwave trough/mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin
the day over the Upper OH Valley before gradually moving eastward
and eventually move off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. Cold front
associated with this system will likely extend from a weak surface
low over southeast VA southwestward back across the central
Carolinas into southeast GA. A few isolated thunderstorms are
possible within the moist environment preceding this front as it
moves eastward.
Farther west, several shortwave troughs will likely move through the
broadly cyclonic flow aloft extending the Pacific Northeast into the
northern Plains. Gradual eastward progression of this parent upper
troughing will help spread strong mid-level flow eastward into the
Plains, contributing to deepening of the surface lee troughing.
Increased southerly winds will help advect moisture northward, with
low 60s dewpoints probable across KS and mid 50s dewpoints into NE.
Upslope flow augmented by the ascent attendant to a shortwave
rotating through the parent trough and convergence along the lee
trough may help initiate high-based thunderstorms across western SD
and the NE Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening
Saturday. Some strengthening/organization of these storms is
possible as they move eastward/southeastward into a persistent
low-level jet and additional low-level moistening. Higher severe
probabilities may be needed in later outlooks but the mesoscale
nature of the storm development and organization merits keeping
probabilities low with this outlook.
..Mosier.. 05/05/2022
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