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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, May 5, 2022

SPC May 5, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska Saturday evening and overnight. ...Synopsis... Mature shortwave trough/mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the day over the Upper OH Valley before gradually moving eastward and eventually move off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. Cold front associated with this system will likely extend from a weak surface low over southeast VA southwestward back across the central Carolinas into southeast GA. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible within the moist environment preceding this front as it moves eastward. Farther west, several shortwave troughs will likely move through the broadly cyclonic flow aloft extending the Pacific Northeast into the northern Plains. Gradual eastward progression of this parent upper troughing will help spread strong mid-level flow eastward into the Plains, contributing to deepening of the surface lee troughing. Increased southerly winds will help advect moisture northward, with low 60s dewpoints probable across KS and mid 50s dewpoints into NE. Upslope flow augmented by the ascent attendant to a shortwave rotating through the parent trough and convergence along the lee trough may help initiate high-based thunderstorms across western SD and the NE Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening Saturday. Some strengthening/organization of these storms is possible as they move eastward/southeastward into a persistent low-level jet and additional low-level moistening. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks but the mesoscale nature of the storm development and organization merits keeping probabilities low with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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