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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, April 7, 2022

SPC Apr 7, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST VA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes along with scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible, centered on eastern North Carolina, southeast Virginia, and northeast South Carolina, mainly through 8 PM EDT. ...Southeast VA...Central/eastern NC...Northeast SC... No major changes have been made to the outlook. Thunderstorm development is underway from southeast VA into central NC and northeast SC along a cold front. Moderate instability (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficient effective shear (45+ kt) will support organized storms into this evening, with the potential for a few supercells. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 will support the threat for a few tornadoes as well, especially from northeast NC into southeast VA, where low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced in closer proximity to an eastward-moving surface cyclone. ...Florida Peninsula... Strong thunderstorms remain possible into early evening within a few separate regimes. Isolated development is underway near the cold front across the northeast FL Peninsula, with continued development possible further south along the sea breeze and outflow boundaries left over from earlier convection. Storms associated with the plume of convection emanating from the eastern Gulf of Mexico may also pose a threat for isolated strong wind gusts along the west-central FL Peninsula. ..Dean.. 04/07/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022/ ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Steady mid-level height falls and increasingly strong cyclonically curved mid/upper-level winds are expected over the region owing to a slow-eastward shift of the longwave trough centered on the Midwest/Great Lakes. The region was influenced by last night's extensive storms across GA/SC with lesser low-level moisture quality and weaker mid-level lapse rates sampled in 12Z RAOBs. However, northward moisture recovery is occurring from the south Atlantic Coast with 66-70 F surface dew points into central/eastern SC. Substantial insolation farther north should aid in a confined plume of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) developing by late afternoon across the eastern Carolinas. As a 1001-mb surface cyclone near the VA/NC Piedmont slightly deepens on approach to the lower Chesapeake Bay, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop towards mid-afternoon along and just ahead of the cold front impinging on the Piedmont and eventually the Coastal Plain. Strengthening deep-layer shear with elongation of the mid to upper-level hodograph and modest low-level curvature will support at least a few semi-discrete supercells with updraft rotation most prominent in the mid-levels. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats from a coverage perspective. The tornado threat should mainly be focused closer to the surface cyclone track near the VA/NC border area, where 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 is most probable. ...FL... A pre-frontal cluster has been gradually progressing east-southeast across the central portion of the peninsula. It has shown a tendency to elongate more parallel to the deep-layer flow in the Tampa Bay area where VWP data indicates persistent weakness in 1-3 km winds. With stronger low-level convergence lagging well to the north along the surface cold front, 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent that this pre-frontal convection is unlikely to become organized. However, ample buoyancy ahead of it along with adequate deep shear may still support transient surges within the line that are mainly capable of producing strong gusts and localized damaging winds. Otherwise, isolated strong storms will be possible along the east-coast sea breeze into southeast FL, as well as near the front across northeast FL. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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