SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC
INTO EASTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST VA...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes along with scattered large hail and damaging winds
are possible, centered on eastern North Carolina, southeast
Virginia, and northeast South Carolina, mainly through 8 PM EDT.
...Southeast VA...Central/eastern NC...Northeast SC...
No major changes have been made to the outlook. Thunderstorm
development is underway from southeast VA into central NC and
northeast SC along a cold front. Moderate instability (MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficient effective shear (45+ kt) will support
organized storms into this evening, with the potential for a few
supercells. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms. 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 will
support the threat for a few tornadoes as well, especially from
northeast NC into southeast VA, where low-level shear will be
somewhat enhanced in closer proximity to an eastward-moving surface
cyclone.
...Florida Peninsula...
Strong thunderstorms remain possible into early evening within a few
separate regimes. Isolated development is underway near the cold
front across the northeast FL Peninsula, with continued development
possible further south along the sea breeze and outflow boundaries
left over from earlier convection. Storms associated with the plume
of convection emanating from the eastern Gulf of Mexico may also
pose a threat for isolated strong wind gusts along the west-central
FL Peninsula.
..Dean.. 04/07/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022/
...Eastern NC and southeast VA...
Steady mid-level height falls and increasingly strong cyclonically
curved mid/upper-level winds are expected over the region owing to a
slow-eastward shift of the longwave trough centered on the
Midwest/Great Lakes. The region was influenced by last night's
extensive storms across GA/SC with lesser low-level moisture quality
and weaker mid-level lapse rates sampled in 12Z RAOBs. However,
northward moisture recovery is occurring from the south Atlantic
Coast with 66-70 F surface dew points into central/eastern SC.
Substantial insolation farther north should aid in a confined plume
of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) developing by late
afternoon across the eastern Carolinas.
As a 1001-mb surface cyclone near the VA/NC Piedmont slightly
deepens on approach to the lower Chesapeake Bay, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop towards mid-afternoon along
and just ahead of the cold front impinging on the Piedmont and
eventually the Coastal Plain. Strengthening deep-layer shear with
elongation of the mid to upper-level hodograph and modest low-level
curvature will support at least a few semi-discrete supercells with
updraft rotation most prominent in the mid-levels. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threats from a coverage
perspective. The tornado threat should mainly be focused closer to
the surface cyclone track near the VA/NC border area, where 0-1 km
SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 is most probable.
...FL...
A pre-frontal cluster has been gradually progressing east-southeast
across the central portion of the peninsula. It has shown a tendency
to elongate more parallel to the deep-layer flow in the Tampa Bay
area where VWP data indicates persistent weakness in 1-3 km winds.
With stronger low-level convergence lagging well to the north along
the surface cold front, 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent that
this pre-frontal convection is unlikely to become organized.
However, ample buoyancy ahead of it along with adequate deep shear
may still support transient surges within the line that are mainly
capable of producing strong gusts and localized damaging winds.
Otherwise, isolated strong storms will be possible along the
east-coast sea breeze into southeast FL, as well as near the front
across northeast FL.
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