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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, April 29, 2022

SPC Apr 29, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat will develop across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes are expected. A marginal severe threat will also be possible in parts of the central Appalachians Sunday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow across the southern and central Plains will be somewhat cyclonic and from the west-southwest. Models suggest that a lead shortwave trough ahead of the main system will move eastward across the southern and central High Plains Sunday afternoon. This will create conditions favorable for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. The airmass ahead of this shortwave trough will become moderately unstable by afternoon across most of west Texas northward into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Although not particularly focused, thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon along the western and northern edges of the moderate instability from far eastern New Mexico into west Texas, and northward into far southeastern Colorado. Thunderstorms are expected to become organized and move eastward across the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Isolated marginally severe storms could also occur further north into parts of southwest Kansas. In addition the moderately unstable airmass, the exit region of a 55 to 70 knot mid-level jet will create strong deep-layer shear across parts of southern High Plains. This feature will also enhance lift and push the elevated mixed layer eastward, making conditions ripe for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible across parts of the Texas Panhandle were the combination of instability and shear is forecast to become maximized. In addition, a 50 to 65 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen across the eastern Texas Panhandle. This will strengthen 0-3 km storm relative helicities to near 400 m2/s2 by early evening, being ideal for tornadoes. A strong tornado could occur in this environment. A wind damage threat will also exist with the stronger storms. The severe threat should persist into the mid to late evening before a capping inversion reduces convection across the region. ...Central Appalachians... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday. To the south of this feature, some destabilization is expected to occur across a moist airmass located in the central Appalachian mountains. Deep-layer shear in this area could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat, with 0-6 km shear being mostly in the 30 to 35 knot range. The stronger thunderstorms that develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon could produce isolated strong wind gusts, especially as low-level lapse rates steepen. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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