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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, April 21, 2022

SPC Apr 21, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA...ADJACENT WESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF IOWA...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Saturday night in a corridor from parts of the Upper Midwest into the southeastern Great Plains. This may include a risk for tornadoes, in addition to hail and strong wind gusts. ...Synopsis... A deep cyclone initially over parts of central/eastern South Dakota is forecast to begin to occlude by late Saturday or Saturday night, while slowly migrating toward the Minnesota/Ontario international border area. It appears that one significant short wave perturbation may pivot around the southeastern through eastern periphery of the associated mid-level low during the day. To the south-southwest of this low, positively tilted larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to linger across the Great Plains into the northern Rockies. This troughing may tend to largely lag to the west of a southeastward advancing cold front trailing from the surface low. Downstream, the axis of amplified mid-level ridging is forecast to only slowly shift to the east of the Great Lakes region. Lower/mid-tropospheric ridging centered near the south Atlantic coast likely will remain prominent, with the surface ridge axis being maintained westward through much of the Gulf Coast region. ...Great Plains into Upper Midwest... Forcing for ascent, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear within the warm sector of the deep cyclone, will contribute to at least considerable conditional severe weather potential Saturday through Saturday night. This includes the risk for organized convective clusters and supercells capable of producing tornadoes, particularly in close proximity to the cyclone, across parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, and perhaps ahead of the cold front/dryline arcing south/southwestward to the east of the mid Missouri Valley into the southern Great Plains. However, most model output remains strongly suggestive that rather weak warm sector destabilization will probably be a considerable limiting factor to severe thunderstorm development. It appears that this will be due to some combination of stabilizing mid-level lapse rates, the advection of dry air from the Southeastern low-level ridging, and, at least initially, a warm and capping layer in between. ..Kerr.. 04/21/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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