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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, April 19, 2022

SPC Apr 19, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered/elevated storms are likely to evolve this afternoon across portions of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. One or two of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe hail. ...Synopsis... As a negatively tilted mid-level trough crosses the Northeast/New England during the period, the overall flow field across the remainder of the U.S. will gradually deamplify. By the end of the period, quasi-zonal flow field will have evolved across roughly the southern half of the country. At the surface, a cold front trailing from an occluding New England low will already have shifted off the middle and southern Atlantic coasts by the start of the period. In its wake, high pressure will prevail across the remainder of the eastern half of the country. In the West, a cold front will cross the Intermountain region, in conjunction with an upper system moving across the Northwest. Eventually, the front will overtake a High Plains lee trough, with the conglomerate boundary to shift into the Great Plains region through the end of the period. ...Texas Panhandle and South Plains... As a subtle short-wave trough shifts out of New Mexico into the southern High Plains region by early afternoon, elevated showers and thunderstorms will gradually develop, aided by moderate CAPE above roughly 700 mb. With amply strong cloud-layer shear, a few updrafts may strengthen/organize sufficiently to permit a few instances of severe-caliber hail across portions of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains regions. Eventually, the convection should outrun the steeper lapse-rate environment, resulting in diminished hail potential eastward into Oklahoma/North Texas. ..Goss/Weinman.. 04/19/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC