SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered/elevated storms are likely to evolve this afternoon across
portions of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. One or two of the
stronger storms could produce marginally severe hail.
...Synopsis...
As a negatively tilted mid-level trough crosses the Northeast/New
England during the period, the overall flow field across the
remainder of the U.S. will gradually deamplify. By the end of the
period, quasi-zonal flow field will have evolved across roughly the
southern half of the country.
At the surface, a cold front trailing from an occluding New England
low will already have shifted off the middle and southern Atlantic
coasts by the start of the period. In its wake, high pressure will
prevail across the remainder of the eastern half of the country.
In the West, a cold front will cross the Intermountain region, in
conjunction with an upper system moving across the Northwest.
Eventually, the front will overtake a High Plains lee trough, with
the conglomerate boundary to shift into the Great Plains region
through the end of the period.
...Texas Panhandle and South Plains...
As a subtle short-wave trough shifts out of New Mexico into the
southern High Plains region by early afternoon, elevated showers and
thunderstorms will gradually develop, aided by moderate CAPE above
roughly 700 mb. With amply strong cloud-layer shear, a few updrafts
may strengthen/organize sufficiently to permit a few instances of
severe-caliber hail across portions of the Texas Panhandle and South
Plains regions. Eventually, the convection should outrun the
steeper lapse-rate environment, resulting in diminished hail
potential eastward into Oklahoma/North Texas.
..Goss/Weinman.. 04/19/2022
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