SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA AND VICINITY...PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS...THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AREA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO AND UTAH...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of elevated hail-producing storms may evolve overnight
across the southern Arkansas/northern Louisiana vicinity, and
possibly over portions of southern Texas. Elsewhere, a convective
gust or two near severe levels will be possible across portions of
the Utah vicinity, near the central Gulf Coast, and parts of the
northern Chesapeake Bay area this evening.
...Southern Arkansas/northern Louisiana...
As low-level warm advection increases north of the
northwest-to-southeast surface front lying across the Arklatex
region, models continue to suggest that widely scattered/elevated
storms will evolve overnight across parts of southern Arkansas and
adjacent northern Louisiana. With ample cloud-layer shear, arising
from mid-level west-northwesterly flow of 40 to 45 kt, a couple of
stronger cells may evolve, possibly accompanied by attendant risk
for hail near severe levels.
...Central Gulf Coast...
A rather disorganized/arcing band of convection continues sagging
toward the central Gulf Coast at this time, where a modestly
unstable pre-frontal boundary layer is indicated. While severe
potential will continue to decrease over the next 1 to 2 hours, a
localized gust near severe levels cannot be ruled out in the mean
time.
...southeastern Idaho and parts of Utah...
Showers, and sporadic lightning flashes -- continue across portions
of the Intermountain West in conjunction with the advancing
mid-level short-wave trough. Meager instability is indicated across
the area, but with a rather deep/dry boundary layer available to aid
in sub-cloud evaporation, a gust or two near severe levels will
remain possible this evening.
...Northern portions of the Chesapeake Bay area...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed in a diurnally heated airmass
ahead of an advancing cold front, where a deep mixed layer is
observed beneath modest mid-level CAPE. With strong mid-level
west-northwesterly flow allow updrafts to exhibit some
organization/longevity per recent radar animation, and the
evaporative potential offered by the deep boundary layer, locally
gusty winds -- with a few gusts near severe levels -- will remain
possible this evening, before the effects of diurnal cooling
stabilize the boundary layer and eventually aid in convective
weakening.
...Portions of southern Texas...
Attempts at convective initiation continue across portions of
southern Texas between the Hill Country and the Rio Grande valley,
particularly in the Real/Kerr/Bandera County area where a couple of
storms have evolved. Across this region, a moderately unstable but
weakly capped environment is indicated, which should continue to
substantially limit convective coverage. Still -- a sustained storm
near/southwest of the Hill Country -- or near the Rio Grande Valley
associated with ongoing convection over the Mexican mountains
southwest of Del Rio that may approach/cross the international
border -- may pose a local risk for hail. Convection should
diminish later this evening as the boundary layer stabilizes/capping
is reasserted.
..Goss.. 04/17/2022
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