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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, April 17, 2022

SPC Apr 17, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA AND VICINITY...PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO AND UTAH... ...SUMMARY... A couple of elevated hail-producing storms may evolve overnight across the southern Arkansas/northern Louisiana vicinity, and possibly over portions of southern Texas. Elsewhere, a convective gust or two near severe levels will be possible across portions of the Utah vicinity, near the central Gulf Coast, and parts of the northern Chesapeake Bay area this evening. ...Southern Arkansas/northern Louisiana... As low-level warm advection increases north of the northwest-to-southeast surface front lying across the Arklatex region, models continue to suggest that widely scattered/elevated storms will evolve overnight across parts of southern Arkansas and adjacent northern Louisiana. With ample cloud-layer shear, arising from mid-level west-northwesterly flow of 40 to 45 kt, a couple of stronger cells may evolve, possibly accompanied by attendant risk for hail near severe levels. ...Central Gulf Coast... A rather disorganized/arcing band of convection continues sagging toward the central Gulf Coast at this time, where a modestly unstable pre-frontal boundary layer is indicated. While severe potential will continue to decrease over the next 1 to 2 hours, a localized gust near severe levels cannot be ruled out in the mean time. ...southeastern Idaho and parts of Utah... Showers, and sporadic lightning flashes -- continue across portions of the Intermountain West in conjunction with the advancing mid-level short-wave trough. Meager instability is indicated across the area, but with a rather deep/dry boundary layer available to aid in sub-cloud evaporation, a gust or two near severe levels will remain possible this evening. ...Northern portions of the Chesapeake Bay area... Scattered thunderstorms have developed in a diurnally heated airmass ahead of an advancing cold front, where a deep mixed layer is observed beneath modest mid-level CAPE. With strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow allow updrafts to exhibit some organization/longevity per recent radar animation, and the evaporative potential offered by the deep boundary layer, locally gusty winds -- with a few gusts near severe levels -- will remain possible this evening, before the effects of diurnal cooling stabilize the boundary layer and eventually aid in convective weakening. ...Portions of southern Texas... Attempts at convective initiation continue across portions of southern Texas between the Hill Country and the Rio Grande valley, particularly in the Real/Kerr/Bandera County area where a couple of storms have evolved. Across this region, a moderately unstable but weakly capped environment is indicated, which should continue to substantially limit convective coverage. Still -- a sustained storm near/southwest of the Hill Country -- or near the Rio Grande Valley associated with ongoing convection over the Mexican mountains southwest of Del Rio that may approach/cross the international border -- may pose a local risk for hail. Convection should diminish later this evening as the boundary layer stabilizes/capping is reasserted. ..Goss.. 04/17/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC