SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday
across portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi
Valley and Southeast.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough/low should develop eastward across the OH Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Saturday. A shortwave trough is
forecast to move quickly eastward from coastal central CA to the
southern/central High Plains through the period. Generally neutral
mid-level heights and quasi-zonal flow aloft should be present over
the southern Plains into the MS Valley and Southeast. A weak surface
low centered over north-central TX Saturday morning should gradually
weaken through the day as a front sags southward over OK/AR. A
dryline should extend southward from this low over central TX.
...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Aided by modest low-level warm advection, mainly elevated
thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning from parts of eastern
OK into the Southeast. This activity may pose an isolated threat for
some hail. Rich low-level moisture will likely be present to the
east of the dryline and south of the front. Diurnal heating and
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates should foster weak to moderate
instability across parts of central/east TX into the Arklamiss
region and perhaps southern AL. Although these areas should remain
to the south of stronger mid-level flow, there should be enough
veering/strengthening of the wind profile with height to support
moderate deep-layer shear and updraft organization.
The morning activity could strengthen and pose an isolated threat
for large hail and damaging winds through Saturday afternoon as it
spreads southward across the lower MS Valley and parts of the
central Gulf Coast. Additional convective development appears
possible along the dryline late Saturday afternoon. The best chance
for initiation may be along/near the front/dryline intersection,
which should be located in the vicinity of north-central TX. If
thunderstorms can form in this region, they would also be capable of
producing isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds. Have opted
to include low severe probabilities for now, as confidence in
overall storm coverage remains fairly low owing to a lack of
large-scale ascent aloft.
..Gleason.. 04/14/2022
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