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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, April 14, 2022

SPC Apr 14, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low should develop eastward across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Saturday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward from coastal central CA to the southern/central High Plains through the period. Generally neutral mid-level heights and quasi-zonal flow aloft should be present over the southern Plains into the MS Valley and Southeast. A weak surface low centered over north-central TX Saturday morning should gradually weaken through the day as a front sags southward over OK/AR. A dryline should extend southward from this low over central TX. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... Aided by modest low-level warm advection, mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning from parts of eastern OK into the Southeast. This activity may pose an isolated threat for some hail. Rich low-level moisture will likely be present to the east of the dryline and south of the front. Diurnal heating and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates should foster weak to moderate instability across parts of central/east TX into the Arklamiss region and perhaps southern AL. Although these areas should remain to the south of stronger mid-level flow, there should be enough veering/strengthening of the wind profile with height to support moderate deep-layer shear and updraft organization. The morning activity could strengthen and pose an isolated threat for large hail and damaging winds through Saturday afternoon as it spreads southward across the lower MS Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast. Additional convective development appears possible along the dryline late Saturday afternoon. The best chance for initiation may be along/near the front/dryline intersection, which should be located in the vicinity of north-central TX. If thunderstorms can form in this region, they would also be capable of producing isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds. Have opted to include low severe probabilities for now, as confidence in overall storm coverage remains fairly low owing to a lack of large-scale ascent aloft. ..Gleason.. 04/14/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC