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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, March 6, 2022

SPC Mar 6, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Mar 06 2022 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight in a corridor from the ArkLaTex and Ozarks region into the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley. This includes the risk for a few tornadoes, some of which may be strong, and damaging winds, especially this evening/overnight across parts of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. ...Discussion... Have made the following changes to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise, forecast thinking remains unchanged and no change was made. 1a.) Adjusted the northern bound of the Enhanced Risk (30 wind and 10 sigtor) to the south by about 1 county tier to account for observations and cold air that will likely remain entrenched across southern MO. 1b.) Adjusted the 10 sigtor farther southwest to immediately south/east of the Fort Smith vicinity. Forecast soundings and recent HRRR guidance indicate the favorable area for a strong tornado would also include more of parts of west-central AR. 2.) Extended the 5 wind probability farther east-northeast across east-central OH for a low risk for marginally strong/locally severe gusts this afternoon before this risk diminishes with diurnal cooling. 3.) Carved severe probabilities farther south/southeast across OK into MO to account for current surface observations and surface front placement and its associated relationship with wind/tornado hazard probabilities. ..Smith.. 03/06/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Mar 06 2022/ ...ArkLaTex into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Evident on morning water vapor imagery, a deepening shortwave trough and 90-100 kt 500 mb jet are forecast to eject northeastward out of the Four Corners across the southern Plains today, reaching the Ozarks and Ohio Valley later tonight. At the surface, a cold front draped over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will move to the east, as a wave cyclone travels along the front overnight. Low-level warm advection is expected through much of the day ahead of the trough across AR and LA. The initially subtle forcing for ascent will intensify through the afternoon and evening, resulting in scattered showers and eventual thunderstorm development as weak inhibition is removed. While wind profiles are not forecast to be overly strong at first, low-level hodograph curvature and gradually improving buoyancy from the advection of 60+ F surface dewpoints may support a few severe storms across the ArkLaTex as early as this afternoon. The greater severe threat will likely evolve late this afternoon and evening into the overnight hours as the approaching trough and low-level jet intensify. Any remaining inhibition should quickly be overcome, supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms by 00-02z. 50-60 knots of effective shear and large low-level hodographs will support the potential for a few supercells or organized clusters ahead of more linear development closer to the cold front. This would support the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, some of which may be strong across portions of northern AR and southern MO. Storms should eventually congeal into a larger cluster/QLCS as they track northeastward toward the Ohio valley. ...Ohio Valley... As the primary shortwave and jet approach from the southwest, large scale ascent should support the development of a thunderstorms along the cold front overnight. Buoyancy will become increasingly scarce with northeastward extent, but this may be somewhat offset by strong dynamic lift and low-level warm advection. The strong wind profiles will support an organized QLCS as it moves northeast near the surface cyclone. A couple tornadoes and some damaging wind gusts will be possible, though uncertainty is considerable on the north and eastward extent of severe probabilities overnight. ...New England... A fast moving shortwave trough moving out of southern Canada may support a few strong/severe thunderstorms along a cold front this afternoon crossing portions of upstate new York and New England. Despite meager buoyancy ( CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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