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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, March 30, 2022

SPC Mar 30, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS...EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is still expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, and over portions of the central Gulf Coast states through tonight. The greatest concerns are tornadoes (some strong, EF2+) and widespread damaging wind gusts (some to hurricane force). ...20Z Update... An expansive QLCS has recently strengthened across eastern LA/AR as it encounters greater low-level moisture and sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based storms. Recent VWPs from KJAN/KNQA show rapidly strengthening winds with height from the surface through mid levels, with over 50 kt of 0-3 km shear present. An 18Z observed sounding from JAN likewise shows plentiful low-level shear, and substantial erosion of the dry/stable layer aloft that was present on the 12Z sounding. Current expectations are for this QLCS to continue posing a threat for widespread damaging winds given the strength of the low-level flow, and for multiple embedded tornadoes. Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind the line, as the severe threat will end once it passes any specific location. For more information on the near-term severe threat across the lower MS Valley, see Mesoscale Discussion 357. Farther north into the mid MS and OH Valleys, ongoing showers and cloud cover are hampering instability. Even so, potential exists for the northern portion of the line to strengthen this afternoon and evening as it moves across these regions. Damaging winds will likely be the main threat, but a couple tornadoes also appear possible. The Slight Risk was nudged northward across southern/central IL to account for this possibility. Otherwise, the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes will likely continue this evening through early Thursday morning across much of AL and the western FL Panhandle as the line moves eastward. Low-level shear is expected to remain quite strong across this region, and rich low-level moisture will be present as well. If the line transitions into a broken/more semi-discrete mode as some high-resolution guidance suggests, then a threat for strong tornadoes may be realized, mainly across parts of southern/central AL and the FL Panhandle overnight. ..Gleason.. 03/30/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/ ...Lower OH/MS Valleys... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough rotating across TX/OK. This trough will become negatively-tilted this afternoon and evening as an associated 90+ kt mid-level jet moves into the lower MS Valley. The result will be rapid intensification of thunderstorms over AR/LA that spread rapidly eastward into portions of IL/KY/TN/MS later today. Low-level wind fields are also expected to intensify rapidly ahead of the line, resulting in very favorable shear profiles for supercells and/or bow/lewp structures along the squall line. Widespread damaging winds are possible across these areas, with the risk of several tornadoes (some strong) as well. As the storms move eastward into central KY/middle TN they will track into a progressively more unfavorable thermodynamic environment. This should result in a slow weakening of the damaging wind threat along the line. However, at least some risk of damaging winds may persist as far east as eastern KY/TN tonight. ...Southern MS/Southwest AL/Western FL Panhandle... The aforementioned squall line will track eastward across MS/LA and into AL by early evening, with a continued risk of widespread damaging winds. Convective intensity may decrease during the evening across northern AL, but greater low-level moisture farther south should allow the storms to remain potentially severe through much of the night. Meanwhile, low-level shear profiles will remain quite strong and capable of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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