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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, March 21, 2022

SPC Mar 21, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from parts of the Southeast, while a few strong/locally severe storms may also affect portions of the central Appalachians/Mid and Upper Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Eastward progression of the longwave trough across the central U.S. is expected to slow on Wednesday, with an eastward drift across the Great Lakes/Midwest expected. On the southern fringe, some eastward advance will also occur across the southern Plains, as short-wave energy continues to round the base of the trough -- digging across southern Texas and adjacent northern Mexico with time. At the surface, a cold front -- trailing from a fully occluded low over the Midwest -- should shift east of the Appalachians early, and then advance slowly eastward across the East Coast states. A warm front should gradually advance northward to the Virginia vicinity, while the occluded boundary advances across the mid and upper Ohio Valley region through the period. Elsewhere, upper ridging will persist near/off the East Coast and northward across New England, while ridging also persists across the West ahead of a northern-stream short-wave trough forecast to move inland/across the Pacific Northwest during the second half of the period. ...The Southeast/East Coast states... Thunderstorms -- and ongoing/local severe risk -- are expected at the start of the period over portions of Alabama/western Georgia/the Florida Panhandle, given the moist boundary layer and a wind field featuring strengthening/veering flow with height. Severe risk -- including potential for a couple of tornadoes -- should expand northeastward across Georgia and into portions of the Carolinas with time, as a warm front advances northward across the area. Questions exist at this time regarding storm coverage into the afternoon, as no appreciable/discernible disturbance in the southwesterlies aloft is apparent, and only gradual/subtle height falls expected east of the mountains. Still, any stronger storms which do form will pose risk for damaging winds and hail, along with some tornado potential. Risk may extend as far north as Virginia, and as far east as the eastern Carolinas, into the evening/overnight, but storm intensity/severe risk should diminish somewhat after a diurnal peak, as storms move into these areas. ...Parts of the Mid South and Ohio Valley/Midwest... As daytime heating commences across the region just ahead of the slow-moving upper low, steep mid-level lapse rates will support diurnal/modest CAPE development. This will result in scattered low-topped shower/thunderstorm development across the area -- near the surface low and occluded front slowly crossing the area. Strong unidirectional south-southwesterly flow aloft will reside atop the area, supporting fast-moving -- and locally organized -- updrafts. Low-level southeasterlies ahead of the low/occlusion may provide ample veering to support the risk for a tornado, while a couple of the strongest storms also pose some risk for hail and damaging wind gusts. If storms could merge/grow upscale into a small-scale band or bands, resulting severe risk could be of SLGT risk caliber -- which could require upgrade consideration in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 03/21/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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