SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible from parts of the Southeast, while a
few strong/locally severe storms may also affect portions of the
central Appalachians/Mid and Upper Ohio Valleys.
...Synopsis...
Eastward progression of the longwave trough across the central U.S.
is expected to slow on Wednesday, with an eastward drift across the
Great Lakes/Midwest expected. On the southern fringe, some eastward
advance will also occur across the southern Plains, as short-wave
energy continues to round the base of the trough -- digging across
southern Texas and adjacent northern Mexico with time.
At the surface, a cold front -- trailing from a fully occluded low
over the Midwest -- should shift east of the Appalachians early, and
then advance slowly eastward across the East Coast states. A warm
front should gradually advance northward to the Virginia vicinity,
while the occluded boundary advances across the mid and upper Ohio
Valley region through the period.
Elsewhere, upper ridging will persist near/off the East Coast and
northward across New England, while ridging also persists across the
West ahead of a northern-stream short-wave trough forecast to move
inland/across the Pacific Northwest during the second half of the
period.
...The Southeast/East Coast states...
Thunderstorms -- and ongoing/local severe risk -- are expected at
the start of the period over portions of Alabama/western Georgia/the
Florida Panhandle, given the moist boundary layer and a wind field
featuring strengthening/veering flow with height. Severe risk --
including potential for a couple of tornadoes -- should expand
northeastward across Georgia and into portions of the Carolinas with
time, as a warm front advances northward across the area. Questions
exist at this time regarding storm coverage into the afternoon, as
no appreciable/discernible disturbance in the southwesterlies aloft
is apparent, and only gradual/subtle height falls expected east of
the mountains. Still, any stronger storms which do form will pose
risk for damaging winds and hail, along with some tornado potential.
Risk may extend as far north as Virginia, and as far east as the
eastern Carolinas, into the evening/overnight, but storm
intensity/severe risk should diminish somewhat after a diurnal peak,
as storms move into these areas.
...Parts of the Mid South and Ohio Valley/Midwest...
As daytime heating commences across the region just ahead of the
slow-moving upper low, steep mid-level lapse rates will support
diurnal/modest CAPE development. This will result in scattered
low-topped shower/thunderstorm development across the area -- near
the surface low and occluded front slowly crossing the area.
Strong unidirectional south-southwesterly flow aloft will reside
atop the area, supporting fast-moving -- and locally organized --
updrafts. Low-level southeasterlies ahead of the low/occlusion may
provide ample veering to support the risk for a tornado, while a
couple of the strongest storms also pose some risk for hail and
damaging wind gusts. If storms could merge/grow upscale into a
small-scale band or bands, resulting severe risk could be of SLGT
risk caliber -- which could require upgrade consideration in later
outlooks.
..Goss.. 03/21/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SM4ztd
