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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, March 19, 2022

SPC Mar 19, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ALSO FROM NORTH FL INTO SOUTHEAST GA/SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two remain possible across parts of the Northeast this afternoon. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across a portion of the South Atlantic coast late this afternoon and early evening. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Western portions of the Marginal Risk and General Thunderstorm lines have been trimmed, but otherwise no major changes have been made to the outlook. Locally damaging winds, isolated hail, and a brief tornado or two remain possible as thunderstorms gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon. See MCD 285 for more information. ...Northern Florida to the Coastal Carolinas... No substantial changes have been made in this area. A few strong thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated hail remain possible late this afternoon into early evening, in association with a cold front. See MCD 286 for more information. ..Dean.. 03/19/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the middle Ohio River Valley, and an associated 70+ kt mid-level speed max within its base, will continue northeastward and reach eastern New York/western New England and nearby middle/northern Appalachians this evening. Strengthening forcing for ascent and increasing deep-layer shear will influence an increasing broad but modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector. Storms should initially develop and intensify across west-central portions of Pennsylvania and New York through early/mid-afternoon. While warm sector moisture/buoyancy will not be robust (generally limited to 500 J/kg MLCAPE), it should be adequate for some severe low-topped storms. Relatively long/semi-straight hodographs atop a modestly curved near-ground (0-1 km) portion of the hodograph should support some low-topped supercells this afternoon, particularly across east-central/northeast Pennsylvania and far south-central New York. This is where a somewhat more focused potential for a brief tornado or two and/or severe hail may exist. Multicells/line segments capable of damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally through late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Florida to coastal Carolinas... Scattered/minimally organized thunderstorms are ongoing early this afternoon from northern Florida into southern/eastern Georgia within a warm conveyor focused near an eastward-moving cold front. Modest near-frontal convergence should further weaken today, which should be a factor in keeping today's risk relatively marginal/isolated in otherwise relatively favorable environment for severe storms. Regardless, a degree of updraft intensification with the existing storms and/or new development will probably occur this afternoon across southeast Georgia and possibly parts of the coastal Carolinas this afternoon. A few instances of damaging winds and possibly marginally severe hail may occur. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)