SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...AND ALSO FROM NORTH FL INTO SOUTHEAST GA/SOUTHERN
SC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado
or two remain possible across parts of the Northeast this afternoon.
Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across a
portion of the South Atlantic coast late this afternoon and early
evening.
...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
Western portions of the Marginal Risk and General Thunderstorm lines
have been trimmed, but otherwise no major changes have been made to
the outlook. Locally damaging winds, isolated hail, and a brief
tornado or two remain possible as thunderstorms gradually increase
in coverage and intensity this afternoon. See MCD 285 for more
information.
...Northern Florida to the Coastal Carolinas...
No substantial changes have been made in this area. A few strong
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated
hail remain possible late this afternoon into early evening, in
association with a cold front. See MCD 286 for more information.
..Dean.. 03/19/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022/
...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the middle Ohio River Valley,
and an associated 70+ kt mid-level speed max within its base, will
continue northeastward and reach eastern New York/western New
England and nearby middle/northern Appalachians this evening.
Strengthening forcing for ascent and increasing deep-layer shear
will influence an increasing broad but modestly moist (50s F surface
dewpoints) warm sector. Storms should initially develop and
intensify across west-central portions of Pennsylvania and New York
through early/mid-afternoon.
While warm sector moisture/buoyancy will not be robust (generally
limited to 500 J/kg MLCAPE), it should be adequate for some severe
low-topped storms. Relatively long/semi-straight hodographs atop a
modestly curved near-ground (0-1 km) portion of the hodograph should
support some low-topped supercells this afternoon, particularly
across east-central/northeast Pennsylvania and far south-central New
York. This is where a somewhat more focused potential for a brief
tornado or two and/or severe hail may exist. Multicells/line
segments capable of damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally
through late afternoon and early evening.
...Northern Florida to coastal Carolinas...
Scattered/minimally organized thunderstorms are ongoing early this
afternoon from northern Florida into southern/eastern Georgia within
a warm conveyor focused near an eastward-moving cold front. Modest
near-frontal convergence should further weaken today, which should
be a factor in keeping today's risk relatively marginal/isolated in
otherwise relatively favorable environment for severe storms.
Regardless, a degree of updraft intensification with the existing
storms and/or new development will probably occur this afternoon
across southeast Georgia and possibly parts of the coastal Carolinas
this afternoon. A few instances of damaging winds and possibly
marginally severe hail may occur.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SM19mn
