SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Appreciable severe-weather potential is not evident Sunday across
the CONUS.
...Discussion...
An eastern U.S. trough -- aligned roughly along the Appalachians at
the start of the period -- will move steadily eastward and
eventually/largely offshore, lingering only in a negatively tilted
manner over northern New England. A surface cold front associated
with this feature will likely already have moved offshore by Sunday
morning, with the exception of the trailing portion of the boundary
moving southward across Florida. Showers and a few thunderstorms
are expected ahead of the front across Florida, but at this time
severe-weather potential appears very low.
Meanwhile, a strong trough will continue to dig/advance across
western Canada/the western U.S./northern Mexico through the period.
While low-level southeasterly flow will begin later in the period
across Texas, low-level destabilization is expected to remain
insufficient, remaining beneath a capping inversion. As such, storm
development is not expected through the end of the period within the
gradually evolving warm sector ahead of the advancing surface
low/front, which should reach the southern High Plains late in the
period.
Showers and widely scattered storms will however accompany the
trough as it crosses the Intermountain West. Isolated/elevated
storms may also develop overnight, from the Texas Panhandle/south
Plains vicinity northeastward across the Plains, within a broad zone
of increasing QG ascent ahead of the trough.
..Goss.. 03/18/2022
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